So the video update I posted yesterday was kind of a downer and I apologize. I was sharing, what many of you probably have… frustration at yet another gangbuster start to winter only to have December not be something to remember, but forget… and facing the prospect of being screwed out of Christmas week riding, AGAIN, waiting for January to roll around. And yes that model run I looked at was the worst of all of them.
So since then the last two runs and the trends have pulled us back from the cliff… somewhat. So the snow potential I thought was 4-8 for the snowbelt areas this afternoon through early tomorrow AM that in the video I was musing maybe 1/2 that… well we’re back to the 4-8 idea again for the Tug, western Adirondacks and south of the BUF…
Enough to whiten things back up but certainly not enough to replace the damage done by 48 hours of well above freezing, fog, rain and wind that wiped out a lot of what was a good base to start. When folks in the heart of the hottest snowmobile areas like the Tug and Hamilton County say don’t bother, that’s bad. Unfortunately despite the cold in the short term, Friday temps go back up then Friday night into Saturday more southerly flow, and more rain.
so the good news here is that the storm does track to the south and east of Upstate. Usually this means a snow track, but because the high was to our south and you have south winds for 24 hours in advance of the storm, it takes away our usual advantage on a storm track.
Storm tracks are key, but not universal. Every situation is different. It’s like snowflakes… no two are the same
So early next week I indicated big cold could be coming back to Upstate but there were indications it could stay just N of us. So the GFS says yep, you’re screwed, while our usual friend the Euro, says, wait a minute, we’ve got a storm passing to the south with a burst of snow and cold coming back followed by lake effect in back of it middle of next week.
IF the Euro wins, and it’s a week away so I wouldn’t bet the farm yet… we could be back in business just in time for opening day for the rest of Upstate NY. Ground conditions and freezing down the trails in areas south of the Thruway will be an issue, but snowbelt areas, the Tug and Adirondacks may be able to get back up and running much faster if the Euro holds true.
And the extended beyond plays out the same. If the American GFS scenario plays out… Green Christmas. If the Euro scenario plays out… WHITE Christmas with riding!
So that’s where we are right now. 50/50. Flip a coin. I have no meteorological leaning one way or another because we are at 7-14 days out where things can change and a sneeze somewhere 3,000 miles away means cold here or we get screwed out of cold and snow.
The bottom line is there is still some hope. So stay tuned!
Best,
Rich
