Well that changed fast! 24 hours ago both long range models shot the monster Nor’easter for Sunday and MLK Day (Monday) off the coast and was ready to bomb Nova Scotia with a Category 2 hurricane, like 964 mb! Shortly after yesterday’s blog was posted, the 12Z run came down and everything changed. All of

Dang it’s cold out! Snow’s over. The bullseye area, the 12″+ snows I hit almost PERFECTLY. The rest, especially south of the thruway… well… UGLY. I’m really sorry the 3-6, and localized 6-12 south of the Thruway didn’t materialize like I thought. I live to fight another day. Such is lake effect. This storm is

So while all the attention is on the heavy lake effect snow today… what about tomorrow? Wednesday? Later this week? Beyond? Well, here’s my best shot as of this morning. BRUTAL COLD Regardless of whether or not you have the lake snows at any point today, tonight or tomorrow morning, it’s freaking COLD! Tonight and

This is it. Don’t get scared now. We’re on the eve of the first significant lake effect snow event of the season. All of November and December with bupkis. Lakes still warm. Winter is finally showing up. It’s time to cash in. First of all, the snowfall map. Notice it is tighter with more detail.

A beautiful Saturday. Mix/Mess Sunday. Lake Effect guns on BLAST Monday. BITTER COLD TUESDAY. Quiet the rest of next week, remaining cold and nice for snowmobiling and winter weather enthusiasts. WHERE CAN I RIDE TODAY? I’ll start with the snow cover map just to reiterate we are WAY behind normal and trying to do something

The cutter is “cutting” it’s way away from Upstate NY with little snow to show for it. Lake snows showed up big time, at or above expected ranges in NNY and especially in WNY where Buffalo Airport somehow verified the NWS 12-18 with a record 17.8″ snowfall! Too bad we can’t do loops around the

Ch Ch Changes! Several changes of note to the weather in the short term and in the longer term to get to. All of it impacts Upstate NY. Almost everything is a positive. Almost… WHERE’S MY LAKE EFFECT SNOW! The widely shared NWS Buffalo Winter Storm Watch since Monday afternoon for 12-18, in some areas

Lake effect still on schedule tonight through tomorrow downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with Buffalo and Watertown being ground zero for this event. The snow will start later tonight and really get going overnight and during the daytime tomorrow. With a 240-250 wind, and with model guidance relatively unchanged, I’m sticking with my

I have no idea what the hell the NWS in Buffalo is seeing. All the model data I have available to me indicates some lake effect snow, and several inches being likely. I have NOTHING that indicates 12-18 inches for the city of Buffalo and the city of Watertown. In all fairness NWS Buffalo is