Most of the models continue to trend colder and farther south and east with the storm track and the area of mix/mess for our storm slated to hit us between Wednesday night and Friday afternoon. The NAM and GFS are among the more considerable models with snow, and a lot of it. If you look

Things just keep looking better and better when we look ahead to this week. At first, it was looking like potentially a wipeout. Three to Four days above freezing, strong south winds, temps in the 40s and 50s, especially in WNY, with heavy rain coming through then a dusting of snow to end the bleeding.

The afternoon blog? Yep. My life is absolutely NUTS right now, and the only time I have to get anything out before Monday is NOW. And given the active weather now and coming later next week, I felt staying offline for three days was NOT AN OPTION. Thank you so much to my members, sponsors

The NWS last night launched a whole lot of extra balloons and did flight scans over the Southeastern US last night, trying to get additional data into the models. The result? The western shift! Will it shift far enough west to get to snowmobile country? No. Instead of being 75-100 miles to the east, it’s

It’s not what you want to hear, but I have to play it straight. I have no model support for the forecast I had wanted to make yesterday. ALL MODELS are trending eastbound and down. Even the NAM and Euro, which remain the farthest west. They have shifted 75-100 miles farther east over the last

Waited for the 12Z NAM and Mesoscale runs to come down before firing this out. Sorry for the delay of a few hours. But I know you will appreciate the analysis… The cold front comes through Thursday night into Friday morning and will leave most locations in Upstate NY with at least a dusting of

Lake effect fluff behind with our clipper continues this morning across parts of Upstate NY. Latest model runs and radar trends indicate enough will stick around to put out an additional snowfall map for today. It’s not a lot, a lot of it will be fluff, but better fluffy than nothing. In this winter of

To Nor’easter or to not Nor’easter. That’s the $64,000 question this morning. That’s this Saturday. The models have come to an agreement that a Nor’easter will happen, and anywhere EAST of Upstate NY is likely to get the storm of the year. If the Euro verifies, which I will admit, the deterministic Euro is quite

Lake effect snows gave a blessing to areas just south of Buffalo and Watertown overnight, with some areas exceeding the 7″ max I had called for. Seeing Lake Ontario and Lake Erie perform is a good thing! It has not happened very often this winter. Expect the snow showers and lake effect to drift south