Chance of snow in Upstate NY over the next 1-7 days – 0%
Chance of snow in Upstate NY over the next 8-14 days – 25%
Best chances for snow: North of the Thruway.
Good morning and welcome to my new trail talk forecast! This will replace The Morning Blog on Tuesday and Thursday. Between Columbus Day (or so) and the start of actual snowmobiling season in December, my 1-7 and 8-14 day forecasts will be focused on snow only. Trust me, I have seen some November and early December snowfalls be the best out of anything all winter in some years.
Once we get to actual snowmobile season in December across Northern NY, at that point my outlooks shall change to where is best to ride. January through March will be totally where is best to ride. If April still allows for late season riding (we have had until as late as the 3rd week of April in the Adirondacks), I will advise this way. When the whole season is over in NY, well then #summersucks through next fall. It is what it is.
Why do it this way? Because of New York’s over 10k total mile trail system. Rarely do we get a time where all 10k miles of it are open, but I have seen it a few times in the last 12 years. Most of the time just a much smaller portion of this large trail system is open. That can be true in mid winter.
Even when there is snow, much of the trail system is closed until early December with the exception of seasonal road trails, mainly across the Tug Hill. Any places where you can get away with riding before early December (again I DO NOT ADVISE IT), I will let you know where is best. If anywhere.
As trails open up during December and January, I will advise what and where is best. It is the hunting seasons up here in New York that run right into snowmobiling seasons, and plus our crazy snowfall totals, especially off of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie that undo everything. This has especially been true in 2014 and in 2022 with historic November snowfalls in Western NY and across the Tug Hill and North Country.
Whatever comes about and whatever the future holds, we will tell you as best as we can. That’s all we can do. So let’s dive in.
The strong Hudson’s Bay low that got formed thanks to the remnants of Philippe, is still there. It has produced easily the first snows of the season for a lot of folks in Ontario and Quebec. Not quite record snow for early October, but something that is not seen in very many years.’ There will be a temporary reset of this at the end of this week.
A second reinforcing shot of this cold air, and even colder air at that, is expected between October 16-21 across not just Upstate NY but most of the Northeast and Southeastern Canada as well. While my probabilities for snow in the 8-14 day are still low, expect these numbers to skyrocket in the next reports of what I am seeing holds true.
I wish there was more to tell you, but there will be much more to say in the coming weeks and especially in the next few months. This is only getting started.
