Chance of snow 11/2 through 11/8: 0 Percent
Chance of snow 11/9 through 11/15: 50 Percent
Well now that Upstate NY has gone through (in most locations) it’s first trace of snow (later than usual) and it’s first accumulation of snow (earlier than usual), we are now going into the doldrums with snow and with unusually cold weather. You can’t keep it this cold, this long, unless it’s 1995. But that winter was one of the biggest ever. So between now and Wednesday of next week it’s going to be mild. 40s this afternoon and below freezing tonight, but then 50s for the next 5-6 days afterwards until the middle of next week.
Now I didn’t call pattern switch here, didn’t go crazy with lake effect here, but by the middle to end of next week another trough comes into the Great Lakes and the Northeast. This one is not as strong as the one we just had. But as we go through November into December, the troughs have to be less and less potent by week. By Christmas, any trough and any northerly flow produces accumulations of snow, especially north of the Thruway.
So based on what I am looking at right now, the period between November 9-15 holds at least a 50/50 shot at accumulating snows. This is likely not to stick around because we haven’t passed Thanksgiving yet. But we are just 22 days away from that.
I wish I could write more, but with the period being over 7 days out I just can’t at this time. We are in dry dock for now.
Rich
