Eyes are back on this weekend for first snowflakes. This has a much greater chance of breaking out of the higher elevations and getting across a lot more of Upstate NY this time around.
Temperatures are warming back up over the next two days, before the bottom falls out again Thursday night and into Friday morning as a cold front moves through. Later Friday and into Saturday morning should be relatively quiet with temperatures getting cooler. By Saturday morning air temperatures approximately one mile high (around 850 mb) should be down BELOW ZERO C across most of Upstate NY, especially N of the Thruway.
We got a few things going for snowflakes this weekend: Besides the air being cold enough upstairs this weekend to generate it, we’ve got not one but two reinforcing shots of cold air, one Saturday PM and one Sunday PM. It’s still too early to tell whether or not it will rain/snow enough, or whether it will be long enough to actually accumulate outside of the higher elevations to the north of the Thruway. Regardless of whether these reinforcing shots this weekend do it, the winds off of the very warm Lake Ontario (and Lake Erie) should provide enough low level moisture to keep it mostly cloudy with precipitation likely.
Any potential snowfall amounts are still unknown at this time. We may get a better look tomorrow morning, but definitely Friday morning, we’ll be in a position to determine whether a (very light) snowfall map is necessary. Based on what I know at the moment, a dusting to an inch or so, is possible especially north of I-90 on Saturday and/or Sunday.
By Monday, high pressure clears out any residual low level moisture and lake effect potential and we go back up on the weather roller coaster again, until another system is indicated for later next week. The roller coaster will continue for the foreseeable future. Have an awesome day!
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