The Thursday event is trending farther north and warmer, so instead of wet snow hitting the Adirondacks on Thursday with lower elevations seeing rain, it looks like everybody will see rain. And temps well into the 40s. Even the Adirondacks look to be upper 30s to lower 40s on this one. Wish I had better news but unfortunately, it is what it is.
After the cold front Friday and cooldown into the weekend, our next hope becomes the Sunday/Monday storm. This one has potential, but you have to consider the warmth to the south, and very fast jet stream overhead. That jet will make forecasting in advance very difficult, and also make systems move very fast. Faster than usual. Even if the storm tracks favorably for Upstate NY, it will not have enough time to put down a huge amount of snow. Still wayyy too early to call this one. Stay tuned. As we get closer, we’ll take a shot once we get within 48-72 hours time frame. Here’s the Euro’s idea of it in the day 5-7 time frame as of right now…
Looking into next week, the models are trending at or below normal on temps specifically for Upstate NY and New England. But above normal over most of the rest of the country. That’s a problem. With a very fast jet stream overhead next week, it could end up being good with winds, cold temperatures and quick hits of snow, nothing big. You won’t get monster Nor’easters in that pattern. The models are dumping tons of snow for now… but I think reality will be different. It has been that kind of winter so far. We’ve been behind on all winter metrics. Nearly every last one. So why should we skip to the dead of winter? We’re not, at least I don’t think so. Daytime temps in the 30s nearly every day across the board does not give me tons of hope for the start of snowmobile season. Even Snowdeo right now.
Which brings me to this:
The final winter weather outlook. We were leaning in the direction of warmer than normal and less snowfall than normal for the 2021-22 winter season for Upstate NY. This statement, of what we believe has a high likelihood of being fact for this upcoming winter, does not tell you how many snowstorms, how many thaws, how long or short of a season we will have when or where at a particular point. What it does mean is this: Like last season, when you have a chance to ride, RIDE. We had an amazing 5-6 weeks of winter everywhere across Upstate NY with many folks able to ride places they have not in many years. It was great during the pandemic and a great workout. Might be similar this winter. Might not. We are not in charge of the details from this far out. We will give you a heads up to the changes across the wintertime as best as we can. And just hope and pray for the best in the meantime. In the meantime, enjoy the tongue and cheek forecast map! LOL!
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