A little snow, then a little wind will blow, then up and down weather the rest of the week. It’s not as bad as you think it is, it’s not as good as you think it is. Last week I thought things were looking great to setup starting this week, then it looked horrible like a super bad wipeout was coming again for ringing in 2020. Now we are somewhere in the middle. Simply put, the forecast has been hard enough, even at 1-2 days for specifics lately, much less 4+ days, which you can’t put a whole lot of stock into at the moment. Even what I show you as we look at the long term patterns going into January, while not a lock to be bad, it’s not a good upper air setup at all.
First to the here and now… any rain or mix changes to snow quickly, snow showers and lake enhanced snowfall is moving through the state at this time. Bands of light to moderate lake snow will continue through this afternoon and tonight. As strong and gusty winds get going, especially in Western NY and on the Tug Hill, expect areas of blowing and drifting snow. The strong winds should disrupt the bands enough to keep snow totals out of double digits through tomorrow AM.
After gusty winds and a brief cooldown tomorrow, Wednesday is quiet weatherwise. The next weather system approaches on New Years Eve. As promised it will get warm out ahead of it and rains will start off… but a cold front will help kick rain over to snow… and since the BIG storm we thought could ride up the front is NOT happening, it takes the wipeout off the table… for now
Beyond this, going into the first days of 2021, this is NOT the upper pattern you want to see if you want cold and snow over Upstate NY. At all. Yes some Greenland blocking is indicated, BUT, nearly every other factor goes against us and since I foolishly bit on a big Greenland block developing and it’s not happening, I’m not biting again for awhile. I’m not saying we won’t get any cold or snow or lake effect if this pattern indeed holds for the first part of January, but if you are looking for feet of snow, tons of lake effect, Nor’easters and sustained below freezing by day, below zero by night weather for several days to a few weeks at a time, IT WILL NOT HAPPEN IN THIS PATTERN. A day or two, yes, but not sustained. This means if you get any snow or cold, any trails are open, if clubs open them and they deem them safe to ride (with caution because there is a ton of water out there hiding under the snow), if you want to ride at all, you’d better trailer to it and get after it when you have the opportunity.
Bottom line: It’s hard writing these blogs lately and it’s not getting any easier as the days go by. Just saying, I’m feeling your displeasure with the weather and frustrated we can’t get winter to stay for very long… so we can actually go out and play in the snow. I hear ya. As I always say, keep the faith and hang in there. It’s all we can do for cold and snow lovers everywhere.
Rich
