Almost heaven? Well it would be a little closer to heaven if I had snow! Even at over 3,300 feet elevation I had the big sun ball in the sky, 54 degrees and zero natural snow anywhere in the mountains around me. Just melting manmade snow on the slopes of the ski resort I was beside. I was about to do a morning blog yesterday morning, but at the very last minute, I ended up taking an over 700 mile road trip with Upstate Snow Jr. Don’t ask, it’s a DAD thing. I’m back, but running late and exhausted. Notwithstanding, West Virginia is the highest point along the Appalachians from New England and NY through Georgia and Alabama. If anyone is going to get cold and snow outside of the Northeast and Upstate Snow country, it’s here. And they had NOTHING. Not even close.
OK, all kidding aside this weeks warmth is no joking matter, at least to the south of Upstate NY. Here in the Carolinas where I live, it’s literally shorts weather. All. Week. Long. There is not a day the high temperature does not BREAK 70 F until AFTER NEW YEARS DAY. The streak of 70F +, which started yesterday with a record high of 78F, one of the all time December high tied earlier this month at 79F, is going to go to a record 7 days, maybe 8. At this point many places in the southeast are having a warmer December than November. Wait, What???This last stand of December heat, which is “normal” for April or October, will dominate the Southeastern US. 70s most of the southeast. 80s Gulf Coast. Some parts of central and southern Florida could flirt with 90!?!? As you look at this 10 day euro animation on temperatures you see the colossal battle of the airmasses being waged… with the cold winning towards the end. Details on that in a moment but first, TODAY…
What does this all have to do with Upstate NY and the snow (or lack of) here? EVERYTHING. The only reason why you are even remotely close to normal is because of the GREENLAND BLOCK. This is what gave you guys the bonus lake effect snow a few days ago, ensured (barely) a White Christmas for many, and what is keeping you guys, this week, in a mix/mess situation. Today we get to see a dusting to an inch (maybe two in the Adirondacks) of snow go to sleet and freezing rain, hence why the winter weather advisories up for today.
The next surge of precipitation and warmth comes at us Wednesday and into Thursday. Once again with the bitter cold north and shorts weather south, and Upstate NY perfectly placed in the battle zone, we will once again see a repeat of snow to sleet/freezing rain to rain then back to snow as these airmasses do battle on a grand scale.
Eventually the warmth will win towards New Years Eve and New Years Day before the pattern change, a very strong cold front, puts and end to the back and forth game we’ll be playing this week with the temperatures and precipitation. That is scheduled to happen over next weekend, on Sunday 1/2. It’s still too early to say whether or not THIS pattern change will stick and we FINALLY get to cold, snow and building a base to ride on in later January and February. But all models are in fairly close agreement with the big shift back to much colder weather happening after we ring in 2022.
Snow and cold is behind EVERYWHERE across Upstate NY, the Northeast and the eastern US in general. A very strong and persistent -PNA and -PDO is keeping the western US cold and western Canada literally in the FREEZER. As that super cold goes into the Midwest and Great Plains, that’s where the snow has been. My friends in central Minnesota posted this pic this morning, and it’s adding to what they’ve already had on the ground. If you have the means, UP of Michigan, northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota is where you want to go… that’s within 24 hours drive of Upstate NY…
Mid winter deep freeze in Canada, almost summertime in the Southeast. Once the cold does make its run south, there is the threat of potentially major severe weather at the end of the week. Still several days out but anytime you have -20 to -40 doing battle with 70 to 90, something is going to happen. Pencil in a severe weather outbreak to the south of Upstate NY around New Years Eve, New Years Day. Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Southeast US. It. Will. Happen. Only question is whether it will be straight line winds or tornadic in nature. That’s the other big thing as a Meteorologist I am watching with this scenario. A third major severe weather outbreak in three weeks. December 10. December 15th. Now New Years. What an end of 2021…
I appreciate you guys taking this long journey with me if you have read all the way to this point in the blog. Thank you. I always do my best to explain what the hell is going on, and with things beyond Upstate NY being so interesting, unusual and influencing the weather… I figured today a good chance to explain. Hope you enjoyed this! And thank you to all my faithful members, sponsors and advertisers that make Upstate Snow go… into our 10th year next year!
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