Additional snowfall is on the way this evening, tonight and into the morning of Christmas Eve! The well advertised warm front will come pushing through and drop a generalized snowfall onto pretty much most of Upstate NY.
But it’s WNY, CNY, the Capital Region, the Tug Hill and southern/central Adirondacks that will get the most out of this system tonight. Unlike the lake snows that fell over the last 24 hours, these snows will be a little bit more water laden and a little bit more dense. This is exactly the base building snow that we need!
Christmas Eve afternoon and evening should be quiet. Overnight going into Christmas Day, “the snow turned into rain”. The warmer air arrives and there will be a period of above freezing temperatures. Not the Christmas Eve Massacre of last year. But 30s to near 40 (in the lower elevations) with periods of rain on Christmas Day as our storm system makes its approach to Upstate NY. The question for Christmas Day is how much rain? Some models pound out 1/2 inch of rain. Others a lot less. The models after 36-48 hours are all over the place more than usual. There will be some melting and compacting, but given the window of time, and the amount of snow on the ground especially north of the Thruway (way under normal but better than it could be), we are looking at most of us surviving this surge of warm and rain showers.
Sunday SUNDAY! What’s up behind this storm? Well, we still don’t know. GFS goes several inches of snow. Euro, a little. NAM, a little. Canadian GEM and Regional GEM, NOTHING. So we may see lake effect and wrap around snow or we may not. Sunday the day after Christmas is still a big fat question mark. I hope to refine this some in the coming model runs.
Over the holidays into 2022
We are averaging out near normal with above normal precipitation. You can tell by the Western US getting hammered that it’s the opposite of what we need there, a -PNA. We need a +PNA for best teleconnections here. We do have a strengthening Greenland Block, -NAO and -AO which will help to keep more seasonable air over Upstate NY and the Northeast. Getting into this time of year, normal is good. Not great, but good. We get some cold nights this time of year, especially up north, and that helps. It also is our insurance against getting the blowtorch, which is what happened earlier this month. The precipitation with a fast jet stream and many systems flying by will be at or above normal. This could potentially work out for Upstate Snow country. It may not. Here in the Carolina’s we’ll be in T shirts more days than not and having that much warmth close by is never good. But if the blocks and the cold can linger just enough… we may start the snowmobile season shortly, although under much less than optimal circumstances. Stay tuned!
One final note for the absolute die hard riders… With the 2-5 verifying over the Tug Hill yesterday, there is now 6-8 on the ground on the hill proper. There is potentially just enough up there to try some seasonal roads today and especially Christmas Eve. If you go, use extreme caution, ride at own risk, stay on seasonal roads only, all other trails off the hill remain CLOSED! See Turin Ridge Riders Facebook page for more details for you folks that will literally ride anything!
Special thanks to Andy Artessa and the team at Better Homes and Gardens Pristine Real Estate in Cape Coral/Fort Myers Florida for sponsoring Upstate Snow! In the last week we’ve added both South Carolina and Florida to our growing Member and Sponsor list. You don’t have to be in Upstate NY to support Upstate Snow! We get thousands daily from not just NY, but all through the Northeast, around the country and beyond!
To become a MEMBER, drop me $10, and you’ll get name recognition, or if you wish not to use your name, recognition to your favorite snowmobile club or where you live. To become a SPONSOR, drop me $60 and I’ll put up a link to your business, Facebook page or snowmobile club!
Click below to get started
paypal.me/lupiallc
www.venmo.com/u/Richard-Lupia
THANK YOU to our faithful sponsors and members!
SPONSORS
Southern Tug Hill SnoRiders
Saratoga Snowmobile Association
Ohio Ridge Riders
ILSNOW.com
Enjem’s Flooring America
Water’s Edge Inn – Old Forge
Adirondacks Speculator Chamber of Commerce
White Lake Inn
Toads LLC Fisher and Snow Dog Plows, Cairo, NY
John Schoff Memorial Vintage Ride – January 15, 2022
Lincoln Mountain Gansevoort Snowmobile Club
ATV Tractor
Foley’s Lawn Care and Gardening
Better Homes and Gardens Pristine Real Estate – Cape Coral, FL
MEMBERS
Chris Rinck
Charles Klesse
Chaz Albertson
Dave Gleasman
John Bates
Darrin Harr
Mark Enjem
Matthew Pistner
Eric Vilovchik
Brian & Paula Bedell
Robert G. Gartley
Chris Higgins
Nathan DeMarco
Frank Presky
Chris Schoff
Richard Keller
Mark Spano
Paul Marconi
Michael Schrader
Chris Skipper
Frank Sansone
Mercy Board LLC
John Scalora
Tom & Alis Vincent
Angelina Gogola
Cricket Corelli
Russ Lamoy
Jeff Greene
Chaz Albertson Jr.
John Bossolt
John Foley
Andy Artessa
