Hello winter! It’s your first full day! How about some snow? Really? Sure!
That’s what I was like waking up this morning looking at the scenario on the mesoscale models. Canadian regional went NUTS. NAM 3K less aggressive. NAM, Euro and GFS were like YAWN. But within 24-36 hours, these are the situations surprise snows come up. I’m calling it now. Not anything to get super worked up over, but at this point ANYTHING is a bonus.
Cold front comes through during the day today and activates the lakes. The main systems well to the NW and well to the SE of Upstate NY, leave the state stuck in the middle. But the warm lakes, this is a scenario Lake Ontario can help us. I hope so at least. I realize the risk in putting this up here as I am generally conservative with snow, but based on experience, I’ve got to put this snowfall map up valid until noon tomorrow. A very modest lake event, mainly off Ontario but some off Erie in the south towns and Ski Country…
You can see on the mesoscale models clearly something will happen this afternoon and tonight. Any lake effect snow will be fluffy, powdery, and will blow away easily. This is not the harder snow, the break your back shoveling snow, this will be mainly lake fluff that blows easily on the wind. It starts off initially 270-280 wind direction then steadily moves to a 300-310 wind direction. This places the Syracuse area into the highest risk for snow. My thoughts are closer to 2″ in Syracuse and the lower elevations, the hilltops at 1000′-2000′ to the south of Syracuse and the Tug Hill to the NE of Syracuse will have the best chance at squeaking out 3, 4, maybe a renegade 5″ amount. South of Buffalo not as much but extreme southern Erie, N Chautauqua, N Cattaraugus and SW Wyoming Counties are the best shots at getting more than an inch or two. As with all my snowfall maps, there are errors involved. Not everyone in the 2-5 range will see 5. Again, elevation based. Lake effect is very localized. Adjust your expectations accordingly.
Thursday night into Christmas Eve morning another warm front comes through, cold enough for snow, and a lot more general this time. A lot more of the state should see at least a dusting to and inch or two here. Maybe more based on the NAM 3K above? I’ll keep watching the scenario. It may be just enough to ensure a White Christmas for a good part of the state! A map on that will come tomorrow morning. Then Christmas Eve night into Christmas morning, the next wave with, just like that Christmas song says, “the snow turned into rain” 🙁
With the Greenland block firmly in place and the -PNA firmly in place this means the western US stays miserable, the Southeastern US stays nice for the most part with warm spells, and several systems, one after another get shot west-east across the country at Upstate NY. Expect that pattern to continue during the holiday break. Not bitter cold. Not blowtorch warm. Just enough to keep winter around. Will we get enough to finally open up a few trails out there? Jury is still out. All trails in NYS still closed at this time. Keep it here and we will let you know whom gets enough to open up.
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