We need to make the most of what we’ve got. This is as quiet as I have ever seen a pattern in December. I honestly cannot remember a stretch where I look out seven days and see nothing significant in terms of precipitation. Neither rain nor snow.
That almost never happens.
The good news in this: If you are traveling before/during Christmas holiday, it will be much nicer and calmer than the craziness the Thanksgiving holiday was for us traveling.
The bad news in this: There’s not a lot of snow out there for snowmobilers. The two thaws a week ago did enough damage to take out much of the progress the state made towards freezing the ground down and slowing down the movement of water. Three plus inches of rain and temps in the 40s and 50s with wind killed that off. While the current cold helps freezing things down, it’s never a good sign when clubs are opening trails then closing them back down just as fast as major water holes and issue come to light fast as snowmobiles and groomers make the first tracks out on it.
So with no major weather coming, we got what we got. Where clubs are open you can ride. Where clubs are not open, I HATE TO SAY THIS… but you know we always give it to our straight… it is unlikely they will open soon.
High pressure is large and in charge today and through the weekend. As the high drops south into West Virginia, west winds kick in and bring warmth from the center of the country our way. Temps on Sunday, Monday and Christmas Eve will get above freezing (40s likely in the lower elevations)… the only consolation being below freezing at night but the bitter cold we have now is gone by Sunday…
As you see by Christmas morning, a weak back door cold front drops down to cool us off a little bit. Barely enough moisture to spark a few snow or rain showers. If we get any precipitation at all it would be Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. Extra clouds around. That’s about it. In the short term, the jet stream pattern helps thanks to the Newfoundland Low, but there is trouble ahead. A VERY STORMY WEST COAST with a deep trough out there. That’s never good for us.
The fact the Polar Vortex is near Santa’s workshop, the Newfoundland Low weakens and the storms continue to hit the west, it means above normal temperatures will rule over Upstate between Christmas and New Years… IE… ABOVE FREEZING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME. With nothing new in the snow department for the rest of the month, and moderating temperatures, and everyone trying to ride where there is snow… It means that conditions will likely deteriorate, gradually, over the holidays.
Hope for a more favorable pattern shift is now shifting from around New Years Day to the first weekend of the new year…
So the bottom line is… ride what you can, as soon as you can, safely.
Some announcements here… We have debuted the Trail Talk “Guide to Your Ride Podcast” in cooperation with the Southern Tug Hill Sno-Riders and their President Chris Rinck. The first podcast we did is here https://www.upstatesnow.com/podcast/guide-to-your-ride-1/
We are also happy to announce that Dave Gleasman from Mapledale Motors will be a sponsor of this new “Guide to Your Ride” podcast starting next week and through the rest of the season. If your business or organization would like to partner with us to sponsor that podcast, our Trail Talk Podcast series (Find/Listen Here)please send us a message on the Facebook page and we’ll be happy to tell you more.
We are also happy to announce Chuck Donal, fellow snowmobile enthusiast and owner of www.ratelocker.net will continue as sponsor of our video weather updates. We thank Chuck for his partnership and encourage you if you are a resident of Pennsylvania and/or New Jersey, or will soon be one, he is a direct mortgage lender and he is your guy to buy or refinance with. Please tell him Upstate Snow sent you. And thank you!
Zack and I have a busy Friday and Saturday ahead of us. Look for updates on our Facebook page as to what we are up to.
Thank you so much for your support of Upstate Snow, a father/son project, in service to the snowmobile community, the clubs, winter weather enthusiasts, and those seeking sound weather information for travel across Upstate NY in the winter months.
Rich & Zack
