Please share our updated forecast for snow tomorrow! The cold front has gone through, the record warmth of yesterday is now OVER, and colder winds are blowing. Not bitterly cold, but colder. And there is just enough cold air in place with the next system coming overnight tonight and through Saturday and Saturday night, timing just a few hours ahead of schedule, plus the model trends settling about 25-50 miles farther south, that more of Upstate NY, especially NORTH of the Thruway, gets into SNOW. Little to no mix north of the Thruway. Some mixing along the Thruway corridor, a lot more mixing or just changing over to rain then back to snow as you approach NY17/I-86.
As you can see here, Saturday afternoon is looking to be a steady light to moderate snowfall across a good portion of the state. Accumulating snow. Shovel snow for sure, for some possibly enough to dust off the snow blower. It develops overnight and during the morning Saturday, hits everyone Saturday afternoon and tapers off Saturday night from west to east as our cutter flies to the east. By Sunday morning, just flurries and snow showers remain. Despite very warm lakes, little to no lake effect is anticipated behind this storm system.
So yesterday I went into the timing of next weeks weather. A few notes on this here. Tuesday 12/21 is the next cold front, a reinforcing shot of colder air coming on down from the north and west. Some light snow showers with it. Lake effect is likely to be minimal here as well.
The next one was Thursday, speed that up to Wednesday night with another reinforcing shot of cold air from the north and west. Again, with the pressure patterns expected, it’s not going to be enough to widespread activate the lakes.
Then Christmas. There’s a tale of two Christmases. Christmas 2002 was one of the biggest snow storms of all time across Upstate NY. I’ll never forget that Christmas, first in my new home, having to go downstairs, away from family after Christmas dinner because 18-36 inches of snow, some at 3-5 inches per hour, was falling and standing people. Then there was last year, the Christmas Eve massacre of 2020. After all the record snows on the ground across the southern tier and Capital Region, 1-3 inches of rain, winds, and temps in the 50s wiped out almost everything. Ho. Ho. Ho.
What about this Christmas? Well, a big storm has been indicated in the models for Christmas. It’s still in that 7-10 day “fantasy” range, where the models will literally put out anything. Yesterday was a great Nor’easter. Today, closer to Christmas Eve Massacre 2020
But in all fairness, it corrects and goes into major wrap around and lake effect just hours after that… which if the track was truly last year, that did not happen. This tells me the model is still “thinking about it”
But I’m going to put the alert out now. Christmas time something is coming. Won’t be sure of the details for at least another few days, and I’ll continue to speculate and follow here, but just know for Christmas… SOMETHING IS COMING…
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