For the first time in weeks, I have something called HOPE. Hope we will see a return to snow in Upstate NY. Hope for a White Christmas. Maybe on that one. Hope for a pattern change. Hope that winter will arrive late rather than not at all. This is an evolving process so I’ll start with where the hope is proving best at the moment: This weekend.
Notice I’m skipping past the next several days. Enjoy your record warmth 60s on Thursday before the cold front comes through and brings you back from stratospherically above normal to just a little above normal on Friday. Enjoy the rain too. That’s what we need to do is melt off any lingering ice in the Tug and Adirondacks and literally bring us back to SQUARE ONE. Zero snow. Zero frost or ice. Water water everywhere.
But then, there is Saturday. Here’s the setup.
The Thursday front bringing an end of the record warmth will drag a cold front with it down to the south of Upstate NY. How far south? Ohio Valley and the Virginia’s south. Possibly North Carolina. The record warmth stays south of this line, the “normal to a little above normal” to the north of the line. This boundary gets hung up Friday night into Saturday where I mentioned above. 70s in the Carolinas. 30s and 40s PA, NY and New England. Here’s your clash. Now all we need is a disturbance to ride along this clash to spin up a storm to dump some snow.
And here it is. Third model run in a row on the Euro. GFS which was going wildly north and west on earlier runs is now course correcting towards the Euro, and is now tracking the low right at Upstate NY before jumping this to the coast, south and east of Upstate NY. I’ve been in this game a long time, and I know how to spot the trends. This is legit. The only question now is how far south does the snow get? Best call for snow would be Saturday afternoon and Saturday Night, tapering off Sunday AM across Upstate NY. North of the Thruway, Tug Hill and Adirondacks look best for accumulations. Mohawk Valley and Thruway Corridor to points south may be a chance for more rain to mix in. After all, 70s are pushing north from the Carolinas and the cold air is building at the same time. Usually in these scenarios, rain and warmth will win. As much as we expect and want snow, gotta stick to the data here.
How much snow? Not much. A few inches is the most likely scenario here. Just enough to whiten things back up. This is not a widespread 6″+ or double digit snowfall scenario at this time. And then the problem is, being in need of consistent snow and cold to build us up to the point we can ride, we are not getting help behind this storm. Still scenarios of another storm following behind it early to middle next week but going WAY south and east of Upstate NY. The air behind it is not bitter cold by any stretch of the imagination but seasonably cold. Much closer to normal but not below normal. It may help keep whatever falls this weekend around for a few days, but we are still miles away from first rides, miles away from where we should be for this time of year, and miles away from most/all of Upstate NY enjoying a White Christmas.
But we do have progress. Some progress. Taking anything that we can get now.
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