Lake effect snow returns tonight and tomorrow downwind of Lake Ontario, but not after warmth, wind and rain to wash out what snowpack we do have on the ground for this opening day of the 2021-22 snowmobile season for parts of the Tug Hill and for most of the Adirondacks.
I wish there was enough to ride today, and if the lake effect to add to what we have right now could be just enough for a few places to try, 40s and 50s with wind and rain put an end to that idea in a hurry. Speaking of the winds, they will be STRONG, especially this afternoon and tonight as the band of rain moves through, colder air moves in, and the lakes wake up.
Looking at my lake effect checklist, the first thing that jumps out is the winds are too strong. Not enough residence time over the lakes. That being said, the wind flow is consistent 270-290 and there is a GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION. If the wind speeds slowed down, this would be double digit potential. In this scenario we are relying on lingering low level moisture and the upstream connections to replace for the Adirondacks and Tug Hill what will be taken away today. By Tuesday Night, we are right back where we started from.
Going to Wednesday and Thursday, because of the afore mentioned really fast winds aloft, and model discrepancies remaining higher than usual, not enough confidence to put out for snow potential on Wednesday and/or Thursday with the next system rolling through. One thing I know is that this next storm is trending more to the SOUTH across PA then heading into Southern New England. It’s not a big storm by any means, but even missing out on a few inches of snow right now is a big deal.
By the end of the week high pressure builds in and the warmup begins. Huge warmup. Friday should be well into the 40s and even 50s across parts of Upstate NY. Saturday… potentially 60s??? Yep. Doesn’t matter if it’s snowdeo weekend in Old Forge, and if they have some snow on the ground… it will melt quickly. Hopes for snowdeo weekend are DASHED.
Heading into next week, there is NOTHING. West to Southwest flow aloft. All the cold parked over Alaska and the west coast. This means BLOWTORCH next week across the eastern 2/3 of the US and southeast Canada. Including Upstate NY and the surrounding environs. There is simply no cold air anywhere near us. Even getting the 32F line to Upstate NY for more than one day is a CHALLENGE. Ugh…
Hate to say this, yet again, but it looks like a good chance the first real shot at getting to ride ANYWHERE will be the week leading up to Christmas at the earliest, and in the lake effect belts of the Tug Hill, western Adirondacks and hill towns to the south of Buffalo. Outside of that, I hate to even question a White Christmas 19 days out, but, I am starting to question if that is even possible. I hope I look back 10-15 days from now and say “what was I worried about” but this past decade plus has featured very warm and snow LESS Decembers, very warm holiday seasons with big thaws, before winter really kicks in sometime in January for a shorter season.
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