Swing and a miss! No goal! Wide right! Missed the dunk! Whatever sports analogy you wish to use… it applies. Not going to happen for Upstate NY. Between borderline temps tomorrow and a track models continue to nudge east, even the Hudson Valley and points east to the border should stay under an inch or two, if that. Even the Catskills won’t see much.
Now get east of US 7 in the Berkshires and Greens, especially from I-91 in the Connecticut Valley and points east, there it’s GAME ON. New Hampshire and Maine will get pasted off this storm. Here are the storm tracks per Euro, NAM and GFS. Notice the GFS does bring it tantalizingly close to Upstate NY, but I don’t buy the GFS shift west. All other models and all the run trends keep pointing east away from Upstate NY. Especially for snowbelt areas snowmobilers care about, it’s not enough to get us into it.
Air too dry in back of it to generate any meaningful lake effect. In fact we expect quiet weather conditions for most of next week. Above freezing by day. Below freezing at night. And unfortunately the longer range at 6-10 days is not boding well for either colder temps or precip for Upstate NY…
Not what you want to hear… But if you’ve followed me for any length of time, you know I am always going to shoot you straight. Here is the bottom line:
- For the season that starts next week on Tug Hill proper and in the Adirondacks we expect neither sufficient cold nor snow cover for clubs to be able to open any trails.
- For areas in which the season starts the week of December 14, we expect a low chance of sufficient cold and snow for clubs to be able to open any trails based on the current forecast.
Things can of course change. You know how up and down the winters are and we could be looking at a much different picture next week or the following week. If we see signs of legitimate hope, solid cold and good accumulations we shall analyze and report as such. But for now, I think we have at least a few weeks to go. I know Christmas week, outside of 2017, has been a bust for most of the last decade. Hopefully this will change this year, but still don’t know for sure. 21 days to go until Christmas.
Until then we snow lovers, cold weather lovers and snowmobilers will need to exercise the muscle that is worn out and sore… Patience…
Enjoy your weekend,
Rich
