Snow showers, mixed with rain at times today, trending to all snow tonight into Monday morning will be present across much of Upstate NY as a weak Alberta Clipper comes running through the region. It’s weak, just enough to put down just enough for you to shovel and brush off… but not quite to the plow or snow blow unless you live south of Buffalo with persistent flow off Lake Erie. Off Lake Ontario, with much more wind shear with height, the lakes will not be able to get involved… at least that’s the way we see it at the moment. So tomorrow, Monday, after a holiday, will feel for most people like a MONDAY. Take your time, there will be slick spots out there across a lot of Upstate NY. Again snowfall amounts by Upstate NY standards are almost YAWN…
After a break Monday afternoon, Monday night into early Tuesday, the next Alberta Clipper approaches. This next clipper system takes a little bit more of a northerly track by 50-100 miles based on the latest model trends. This means the Tuesday into Wednesday snow event will be more of an along and north of I-90 type of thing, less S of Buffalo, Finger Lakes and Southern Tier. The wind setup with this is definitely a lot more favorable for Lake Ontario to WAKE UP. I’ve seen this scenario before where it looks like a little clipper then the lake effect really gets going behind it and lasts just long enough for advisories to be issued. It would not surprise me if this happens for Oswego, Lewis, N Oneida and possibly N Herkimer and Hamilton Counties. Stay tuned on this one… there will be yet another snowfall map in tomorrow mornings blog for this one.
After this, a pattern change is indicated. There will be a storm that blows up off to our west and is showing strong indications of tracking to our north and west. This means we go from cold into warmer with a mix to rain then back to snow and some lake effect in back of the system indicated for this weekend. With strong cold anomalies and big low pressure over Alaska, the “Alaskan Assassin” as Darrin at ilsnow likes to say, this is going to be an issue for the start of snowmobile season after December 5th in the Adirondacks. Yes, that’s right. In the Adirondack Park itself, including Old Forge, after sunset December 5th we are GAME ON.
At this time, it does not look like there will be enough snow, enough base, and the weather at that time and beyond is looking to become more un-cooperative for those looking to get their first rides of the season in. We are still 12-14 days away from Snowdeo and Shootout. A ton can change between now and then. At this moment in time, if I were a betting man, I’d bet against it being very cold, very snowy, and/or there being much riding going on in the Old Forge/Inlet area. This is a very early first look that far out. In 5-10 days I could have serious egg on my face or end up being Nostradamus. Since we cheer on snowfall and winter here, I’m seriously liking eggs instead of prophet of doom for winter weather lovers. Time will tell. Final winter weather outlook comes your way Wednesday December 1st as promised. Hint… Unlikely there will be any changes.
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