Good morning Upstate Snow Nation! Oh my word… It has been many years since I have had a forecast run like this. We aren’t even into the season yet. It is still deer season in all areas. In the North Country, Adirondacks and parts of the Tug Hill, this will be the case through sunset on December 8th. That is still 12 days away. Given just how much snow, in some of these lake effect areas, could fall between now and then, it will be very difficult to keep riders out of there. Seriously. It will be.
Minor event late today and early tomorrow
This one is looking at or perhaps on the lower end of what I was going for. There will still be lake effect but not as much time for it to get going and with temperatures falling from the 40s, there is some melting at the beginning that will take down totals. Just saying. Then mostly sunny for most of tomorrow instead of snow showers. That’s a positive. The last positive left in the forecast.
Thanksgiving Day Storm
This one is starting to come more together. Is it coming together enough to where I want to put my forecast map out yet? Not quite. The models still have a lot more spread than usual. The one thing I will say is south of the Mohawk Valley, east of I-81, and all of Eastern NY into New England looks to be bullseye for this storm. Areas north and west of here will end up with much less to potentially none. I want to give this one more model run. Let the 12Z come on down. This afternoon, I will produce a special update with the forecast for Thanksgiving.
Friday through Monday
These next four days represent an increasing threat for a major lake effect snow event. This major event will feature feet of snow in the areas hit the hardest. Easily. I have had some folks say 50″ or more of snow. I won’t say for where (because that would be FALSE) but I will say given the cold air and the blowing off the lakes for several days straight, 50″ in some towns is not out of the question. I am just saying if you are in a lake effect snow area, or one that is prone to getting hit, prepare like it’s mid-winter NOW. Seriously. Between the holiday weekend and tons of snow, this is NOT something you want to be stuck in the middle of. If you can help it.
Beyond Monday
Continued cold for the rest of the week. Not as much lake effect snow, but since we are beyond Day 7 here, we generally don’t discuss specifics with weather at this point. Just more of trends. The trend is: BELOW NORMAL WEATHER CONTINUES!
That’s the update for now. Stay tuned for my special report this afternoon.
Zack and Rich Lupia
Upstate Snow
November 26, 2024
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