Good morning! I am here! I am alive! And yep… over the weekend the weather has started to go CRAZY. Not with what is happening now, but with what is coming. What is coming there has been all kinds of spin on. Some of it has been blown way out of proportion by some folks. Others have gone too conservative and have said, NOPE, NOTHING HERE. MOVE ON. I honestly think just from what I have seen so far, the truth, and the first significant accumulations of snow for some parts of Upstate NY we are within days of seeing. We are within one week of seeing. That is what has my attention with this report.
NOTHING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
For today, tomorrow and Wednesday, there will be nothing. It will be too warm. It will be in the 50s today and tomorrow. Well into the 40s on Wednesday. The next three days hold a big fat ZERO. But what happens after that? That is the big question. The models, as usual, are playing their reindeer games.
GFS GOES BONKERS
The GFS Model goes absolutely completely bonkers on this storm. It moves this storm to the Atlantic Coast and blows this thing up into a big storm. How big? We are talking a top 5 all time November storm for Eastern NY and into New England. Lots of accumulation. More than a few inches. Even in Central NY around Utica/Rome, we would be looking at a top 5 November all time November storm. This starts Thursday Morning then goes through Friday before tapering off later Saturday. Another round of rain or snow showers (much less) is possible on Sunday.
THE EURO GOES EVEN MORE BONKERS
The Euro, normally one of our more conservative models, has sounded the alarm. Not specifically to Upstate NY though. We would get much lighter accumulations, perhaps a few inches in spots from Thursday through Saturday across Upstate NY, especially downwind of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. The problem is what is lurking just south and west of Upstate NY. This would be a top 5 November snowstorm. Western Pennsylvania into Ohio, Indiana, West Virginia and northern Kentucky. These areas have much different snow accumulations and temperaments than Upstate NY, but when a sub 985 low bombs out over you, and you are less than 168 hours away, even 120 hours away, you had dang well better pay attention!
BOTTOM LINE
Someone is going to get their butts kicked inside out at the end of this week heading into this weekend. Particularly Thursday, Friday, and possibly Saturday. It may be in Upstate NY, it may not be. Just given how wild the swing are in the models right now (more than usual), my confidence on creating a forecast at this time is very low. I am hoping tomorrow, if not definitely by Wednesday morning, I will have all the data I need on this forecast, enough to be able to generate snowfall accumulations, and enough to get you guys through the first snow event of the 2024-25 season.
ONE LAST THING
Remember, it’s November. No matter how much snow falls out there THE TRAILS ARE CLOSED. PERIOD. IT IS HUNTING SEASON! You can see clearly up above when the dates for the hunting seasons close. I have said this for over 10 years. I am not going to stop. Especially since some here think they can do whatever: DO NOT RISK IT! Trails are in jeopardy. A few trail closures, especially if in bad spots, can alter the snowmobile landscape in Upstate NY. DO NOT BE THAT GUY THAT DOES IT! Please and thank you in advance.
Zack and Rich Lupia
Upstate Snow
November 18, 2024
