Rain today, but colder air and snow returns after sunset tonight and especially by tomorrow morning.
A blast of rain ahead of the next system along with very mild temperatures sweeps through this afternoon, followed by a strong cold front and big temperature drop this evening. Rain will mix with and change over to snow before ending across the state. With the snow changeover and more than enough lake-air temp differential, plus decent low level moisture behind the front, there will be a brief lake effect event overnight into the day on Friday.
The window of time for decent lake effect will be a 6-12 hour period. Not long at all. But long enough to where with bands able to crank out 1-2 inches per hour, that there will be accumulations. Wind flow behind the front is 270 to 280, so Tug Hill proper and the southern parts of the hill, from Old Forge southbound into northern Oneida, central Herkimer and southern Hamilton Counties. Off Lake Erie, this is mainly a Chautauqua, Cattaraugus and Allegany County event, with not as much southern Erie and Wyoming Counties. With high pressure building in aloft, the winds become averse by Friday night. It’s a short event, but sweet for some!
The weekend looks quiet for the most part. Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night, the next storm approaches with rain to start. Then a transition back to snow for Monday with potentially another round of lake effect snow. The air behind this Sunday/Monday storm will be the coldest of the year so far. The secondary low, Nor’easter develops but well off the coast so more of a New England hit at this time Tuesday into Wednesday for Thanksgiving travel concerns (Boston could be NASTY), but the Euro is indicating some wrap around snows could come back as far as CNY and the Captial Region. Heads up on this for travel next week.
Overall this weather pattern screams out typical late November. Bigger storms. Bigger temperature swings. Shorter windows for snow but the snow more efficient at dumping. We’ll keep an eye on the changes for your Thanksgiving travel plans as usual. Count on us if you need to travel across Upstate NY or beyond next week to see family and friends.
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