Welcome to November! Or is it Snowvember? We shall see. For the first week of the month anyway, chilly with several chances at first snow for most of Upstate NY. Some of the snows, are likely to be accumulating. Best chances are Tuesday and Wednesday.
First we start off with the blast you are getting as you are reading this early this morning. The cold front. The models for nearly a week have been remarkably consistent on this big blast of winter and quick pattern flip to cold and unsettled with opportunities for snow for many folks. There is an opportunity, even later this afternoon and especially tonight the first flakes could fly across the state as the temperatures steadily fall close to freezing by evening, then below freezing everywhere tonight. Even in the cities, if it hasn’t frosted yet, your first frost and growing season ends tonight.
The bigger concern is Tuesday into Wednesday. Reinforcing shot of cold air coming in. Air is cold enough at 850mb for snow. What doesn’t impress me about this is the lower level moisture. It is somewhat lacking. It’s not robust but it is also there because of the anomalously warm Great Lakes. With lake temps still into the 50s, the moisture content off the lakes will be higher, which means areas closer to the lakes are likely to be at or above freezing with less of a snowfall chance. As with early season events, the higher elevations above 1000′ will be the best chance of actually getting accumulation to stick. The first snowfall forecast map of the season will be… TOMORROW.
Looking beyond Tuesday and Wednesday, cold high pressure shuts off the lake effect on Thursday and lasts for the next few days, bringing cold temperatures. The pattern flip back to normal or even above normal starts next weekend and goes into full effect next week. This blast of winter, as is typical this early, is only temporary. Not every November can be like 1995… or 2018…
So what about the longer term? Is it going to be another dud of a winter… quick blasts of cold and snow followed by long periods of what!@#&? We will try to answer that elusive question… well… now…
So where are we on the biggest thing we look at, El Nino and La Nina? We are on the La Nina side of things for the second winter in a row. Looking at the indexes now and where they are likely going to be in the next 2-4 months is critical to the forecast. It does look like they will stay in the La Nina range somewhere from light to moderate. This is key. This is crucial.
Why is this? Because the other indexes are not slam dunks. If it’s too much El Nino, or too much La Nina, we know we are going to get blown out. If it’s closer, especially on La Nina, we have some good analogues and chances.
What about the PDO? Maybe. What about the NAO, the Greenland Block? Yes, helpful but even being much closer to us, it’s not statistically significant enough to make a sway either way. What is left to look at? ALASKA. They have been NAILED this early season so far. Take a look at weather forecasts right now you’ll see they are already getting hit like it’s the middle of winter. That doesn’t sit well with me.
When the pattern flips next week, it will the the ALASKAN ASSASIN as Darrin likes to call the Alaskan low. HUGE one in a week. Nailing Alaska, British Columbia and the Pacific NW. When that pattern is there and the winds are howling off the Pacific, unless it is the middle of winter and something like the NAO is there to bail us out, it usually spells disaster for winter weather lovers and snowmobile lovers.
Bottom Line: While I like the trends with the weak to moderate La Nina, I absolutely do not like the strong Pacific Jet Stream and Alaska getting hammered. That does not bode well for wanting cold and snow in the Northeastern US, especially in Upstate NY. So the “first look” forecast for winter 2021-22 is as follows: At or below normal snowfall. At or above normal temperatures. My gut was initially thinking we are going to get nailed this winter… it has been six winters now since the epic 2014-15, especially January 15-March 15th that year. 2018-19 was a decent one too. The last two have been tough. And I think a third in a row is coming. Less opportunities to ride farther. I fear this may be our winter future at this time. Let us hope to God I am WRONG. Next look ahead in two weeks. Final outlook on December 1.
Do you like our weather reports, podcasts, videos, and features? Say thank you by becoming a SPONSOR or MEMBER of Upstate Snow! For just $60, sponsors receive a hyperlink to your business or social media page on every morning blog and podcast post on upstatesnow.com for the season (until 8/31/22). For just $10, members get name recognition, or if you wish not to use your name, recognition to your favorite snowmobile club or where you live.
Click below to get started
paypal.me/lupiallc
www.venmo.com/u/Richard-Lupia
THANK YOU to our faithful sponsors and members!
SPONSORS
Southern Tug Hill SnoRiders
Saratoga Snowmobile Association
Ohio Ridge Riders
ILSNOW.com
Enjem’s Flooring America
Water’s Edge Inn – Old Forge
MEMBERS
Chris Rinck
Charles Kleese
Chaz Albertson
Dave Gleasman
John Bates
Darrin Harr
Mark Enjem
Matthew Pistner
Eric Vilovchik
Brian & Paula Bedell
Robert G. Hartley
Chris Higgins
