Early season and elevation storms are among the hardest to call. This is no exception. The devil is always in the details for Upstate and there is a reason big October snows (6”+) are rare. In just days climo will be more favorable, but timing is everything and since Zeta wants to go “zing” instead for hanging out a while, that few hours quicker Zeta moves by, and that few miles farther south the track is means the following:
- Not as much snow in the Adirondacks, especially northern ADKs, High Peaks and Tri-Lakes area
- Timing of precipitation means less snow potential over higher elevations of the Southern Tier and Catskills.
While this is what I believe will happen, do not miss the fact that:
- We expect nearly all locations along and east of I-81 and north of I-84, even lower elevations, to see their first snowflakes of the season. Cities and suburbs like Syracuse, Utica/Rome, Binghamton and the Capital Region will get first flakes and probably enough to cover cars/grass but not much more than that
- Locations at or above 1000’ elevation stand the best chance of having the snow stick to the ground
- There will be enough snow and enough cold for roads above 1000’ Thursday night into Friday AM to stick to roads and especially any untreated surfaces
- Best timing for snow is between sunset Thursday and sunrise Friday. Precip will be done shortly after sunrise Friday, if not before that
With that in mind, the first snow map of 2020-2021…
So what happens after this:
- Gradual clearing and breezy Friday
- Clear Very cold Friday Night with teens and 20s widespread
- A chilly but sunny Halloween (upper 30s to mid 40s) with temps falling quickly to near or below freezing in the evening under moonlight skies for Halloween night
We’ll talk next week about initial thoughts for the 2020-2021 winter season and the latest in the development of a moderate to strong La Niña.
Be good,
Rich
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