Good morning! Didn’t want you to think I totally forgot about Upstate Snow. I didn’t. Just taking advantage of these longer fall days and approaching peak foliage in the Adirondacks and Catskills to set me into a better mood.
Over the next 1-2 weeks: There is not anything happening. Unless you like warm weather. Going into the first week of October… and possibly until Columbus Day Weekend… we will be looking at more 70s than 60s and 50s. This along with the cool nights should help the fall colors continue right on schedule. They should move into the hills around the lower elevations near peak around Columbus Day Weekend, then the weekend of October 15-16 should be closer to peak around the lower elevation ranges of Upstate NY. That should last until the 22-23rd unless a big windstorm comes up. That has happened in recent years where we get 1-3 days of truly peak, then big wind and in the blink of an eye we are past peak with a lot of the leaves down. Guess it just depends on what God has for us.
So will it stay above normal and warm later into October? November? December? Well if you look at the forecast trends for a strong El Nino, and follow the forecast trends, it does start to seem as if a 5th light winter in a row for Upstate NY could be due. It could be. It also could not be. You have got to know what the biggest trick to forecasting an Upstate NY snowy winter is: November. As November goes, so goes the winter. This has been the rule over 80% of the winters here. We get above normal snow for the month, even just on a one time lake effect shot, our chances for a big winter go up exponentially. September doesn’t matter. October doesn’t even matter. But November does, and it does way more than you would believe.
I am 48 hours away from surgery on my right foot to remove a 1 X 3 cm growth, which has increased in size and pain since the stroke. It is time for it to go. In 48 hours it is gone. But it means I will be very limited on my mobility for the coming weeks. Until at least the end of October, I will be on crutches and held back. But… #trailtalktuesday, #trailtalkthursday, and the weekend reports all start next week. Even without snow to ride on for another 2-3 months, as the leaves come off the trees and the snow eventually begins to fall, this is where I want you to go. In case there is ANYTHING I would like you to look for. Just in case.
Have a great day!
Rich
