Things could be better. Things could be worse. It is the “back 9” of winter and we are now getting into the final weeks of the season. Will it end in early March like the last two years? Or will we ride into mid to late March like 2018 and 2019? I can’t answer this with complete confidence and authority yet, but I can tell you it will be like most Marches: Up and Down. Just pray the ups in temps don’t wipe us out. Another wipeout, at this point in the season, in the lower elevations, means GAME OVER. Even on the Tug and in the Adirondacks it isn’t like it used to be with April riding almost guaranteed.
So to the details we go. Bitter cold today with windchills below zero, especially north of the Thruway. The extra bonus snows we got yesterday, especially off Lake Ontario, were a big blessing to those that got it. The up and down machine goes into overdrive tomorrow as warm air comes racing back into Upstate NY. During the day tomorrow many locations, especially lower elevations, will get above freezing. May potentially break into the 40s briefly. But an approaching cold front/clipper will bring snows with the best chances north of the Thruway, where it should mainly stay as snow, even if it does peak above freezing for a bit. The cold front behind it will bring all of Upstate NY back below freezing by Wednesday. The snows will accumulate enough to at least coat the ground across most of Upstate NY. Most will only see that dusting, maybe an inch or two topside. Areas downwind of Lake Ontario and north of the Thruway stand the best chance of seeing at least 2″ with locally higher amounts in the 4-8 range on Tug Hill proper and surrounding environs.
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning, a second cold front comes crashing in with another round of snow, this one lighter, the air behind it colder. This ensures Thursday, Friday and Saturday morning, are well below freezing and with good riding conditions, in areas that are still open to riding.
Heading into the first half of next week, we’re back up again and it’s trouble. While spring will be spreading across most of the country for days prior, it does make its way into the Northeast and Upstate NY over the weekend and into early next week. 40s, possibly 50s. Since it’s nearly a week out and beyond, I have no idea how much impact it will have in areas still riding. For those areas that are marginal and just barely hanging on, this is probably your final week to ride. Outside of areas north of the Thruway, I would count this as the last week to ride, if the trails are open and you still can. Many can’t. There are signs of hope the warmup is just temporary as a W to NW flow re-establishes itself and areas north of the Thruway can hold on to riding longer. We shall see if this plays out. Lots of divergence beyond 7-10 days on the ensembles, as is customary this time of year. We’ll see in the coming days the cards March will deal us.
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