No changes to the forecasted snow for tomorrow. I had thought about being cute, but there is just too much uncertainty how far north the sleet line gets and how much it knocks down accumulations. Plus I had a wide enough range on this forecast to cover all possibilities… and the storm is moving so fast I doubt many will exceed 12″ of snow. Therefore, no change. The first look stands as the actual forecast. Let the chips fall where they may.
After the storm rolls through Saturday is a partly sunny and colder day. In areas that get enough snow and/or have enough base to accommodate the new snow, there should be riding opportunities. PLEASE DOUBLE CHECK WITH CLUBS FIRST! A ton of snow was lost, a ton of clubs closed, and even in the snowbelt areas, there are major issues being dealt with. Make sure you can ride wherever you trailer to this weekend.
On Sunday a secondary arctic cold front comes pressing through. It’s becoming a little clearer now with some light snow, a dusting to an inch or two possible. Not seeing any lake effect yet, but it’s day 4. Once it spends some time on the meso models, we should get a better idea and have time to resolve. If a map is necessary for Sunday, it will be issued Saturday morning so as to not eclipse the Friday snow event. Early next week going to be sunny but COLD
Heading deeper into early/mid next week another potential event middle of the week is possible. It looks weak at this time. Then by end of next week, a warmup which was always indicated, comes to rear its ugly head. The roller coaster of weather and temps by next Friday/Saturday could be heading back above freezing… and by a lot potentially. Still have time to watch this.
Then first full week of March is NOT looking as good as it was. At first it looked like the march 3-5 warmup would be it then back to normal/below normal temperatures. The models are NOT showing this now in the 1-2 week GFS ensembles, which do somewhat mirror the EPS Euro ensembles. It shows a -PNA pattern developing, zonal flow, and temps trending at or above normal. In early March that means ABOVE FREEZING. With what little snow, relative to normal, we have on the ground, if this does verify, it could very well mean the end of the season, outside of die hard riding on Tug Hill and Adirondack seasonal roads. I’m not calling winter over yet! Next week does look good and for many, next week could be the last real winter weather week before the grips of spring sink its teeth into Upstate NY for the longer term and bring any widespread snowmobiling to it’s conclusion.
Regardless of what happens, I’ll be here. We’ll continue to follow. We report. You decide.
One final note before I wrap up… I banned a few people yesterday. It was not what I had wanted to do, but these individuals were getting too brash, too disrespectful, too negative on the Facebook side. Of course, I can never keep people from just looking at this site. I’ve been thinking about the censorship of platforms and people a lot more lately than in previous years. I don’t want the comment section of Upstate Snow to be a negative bashing free for all. Individuals have always had the ability to self govern and I want this place to be a place where you can speak. I’m debating whether to hold these bans as permanent, and/or whether to allow previously banned folks back on. To see if they behave. Not sure what to do. Praying on it. And pray for Ukraine. That situation looks like a pile of not good. Pray gas doesn’t go to $10/gallon. Thanks for reading!
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