The hurt, then the hope. While overall this forecast is a good and optimistic one, the next 48-60 hours will just flat suck.
THE HURT
Warmth and breezes already kicking in and temperatures later this President’s Day will fly WELL ABOVE FREEZING. This is going to open up a lot of the water issues left on the trails that froze up after last weeks major rain/thaw. The areas that froze up, will open up again and FAST. Then, an additional heavy dumping of rain gets loaded into the gun for Tuesday
Tuesday during the day rain develops, temperatures remain well above freezing (40s and 50s) with strong breezes. Rain will be heaviest in the afternoon and evening hours. Another 1″ to 1.5″ of rain is likely. Add this on top of the 1.5″ to 2.5″ of rain that fell last Thursday, and it’s going to be friggin COWABUNGA on the trails. Hope your ski doo is ready to be converted into a SEA DOO on a moment’s notice. Ugh…
THE HOPE
Wednesday the cold front comes through. After being sky high above freezing for about 48 hours, what’s left of our bases and snowpack, will be frozen in place and the bleeding will stop. I expect major water issues again on many trails with huge mud holes and areas of standing water in some spots that are FEET DEEP. I do not recommend ANY RIDING until the clubs have had the chance to get out and assess the damage from this next round of rains, and begin to DRAIN OFF this water world that will befall us… AGAIN… Keep the sleds off the trails and high and dry the next several days. You’re not going to want to ride Wednesday or Thursday… because of what’s coming by FRIDAY…
A SNOWSTORM. Yes, a snowstorm. This is a cutter. The low rides up the front then “cuts” from the Ohio Valley into northern VA and PA, then off the coast. The result is not feet of snow, but several inches of snow is LIKELY. These are the types of storms that dump a 4-8 or 6-10 type storm. Much as that surprise lake effect on Saturday saved some trails on the Tug Hill, Adirondacks and North Country, this storm will ultimately be a savior for our snowmobile season. It alone will probably not be enough to get everybody back open, but it’s a GOOD START. I’ll have my snowfall forecast for this storm out on WEDNESDAY. But based on the type of storm and track, a 4-8 or 6-10 gut call from day 5 is probably not going to be that far off of reality. Though it is not my “official” forecast. That comes WEDNESDAY.
After the snowstorm: Lake effect. There is a chance for some additional love from the lakes, especially off Lake Ontario. Every inch helps. A very cold weekend takes shape, followed by another clipper/front, which worked out well a few days ago. Then persistent NW flow of cold Canadian air takes over for pretty much all of next week.
The long range ensembles, both GFS and Euro are in fairly good agreement at this time. Both show similar features. Both show next week to be cold with chances for snow and lake effect. Not sure what yet, but our temperatures look to be persistently below freezing, with some near/below zero possible. With the exception of a slight warmup indicated somewhere in the day 10-14 range, the overall trend as far as we can see is BELOW NORMAL. This means GOOD FOR SNOW and for keeping around what we have.
BOTTOM LINE: Don’t ride until the end of this week. Period. Please don’t. The trails are rough and will get rougher before they get better. Enjoy the week off for many put place your chips on riding NEXT WEEKEND after the snowstorm and the cold is settled in. Conditions should be miles better then. And then next week, if you have an extra day to play hookie and you have not taken it yet, it could be the time to cash in on it. STAY OFF THE LAKES for the next several days. People were taking unscheduled dunks in Sacandaga over the weekend. Many other rescues were performed over the state this weekend rescuing people that went through or otherwise drove their sleds on the trails into the sudden lakes that were formed and they had no way out. Don’t be that person. There is hope and it’s coming. Winter is not done yet. Don’t give up on it yet.
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