General snows will wind down today across Upstate NY with lake effect snows taking over as the main weather concern over the next 36-48 hours. The air coming across the lakes is certainly cold enough, with the Rochester area and counties along the southern lake shore, into the Syracuse area and especially the hills just to the south (Route 20 will be hit good from the Finger Lakes all the way to Richfield Springs) . Even over Lake Erie, a rarity to be open to only partially iced in late February, will generate snows S of Buffalo into S Erie, Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties. Areas outside of the lake effect will be in for partial cloudiness and cold temperatures. Nothing record breaking for February but the streak of below normal temperatures will continue. This should make grooming the snow, especially in areas that get the lake effect, lay down quite nicely.
If you are making plans for riding later next week and into March, especially if you are planning to ride areas of WNY, the Southern Tier and areas south of the Thruway, I urge you to reconsider. The best conditions are now and things will start changing next week. Here is how:
Monday: General snows will move through, but the air behind this system will not be colder, but milder. Temperatures will start to become and issue by Tuesday and Wednesday as 30s during the day, even 40s in the lower elevations along and south of the Thruway, will start to return to Upstate NY. While we will have systems rilling through with snow and/or rain/snow mix, the temperatures, especially outside of the Tug Hill and Adirondacks will start to degrade conditions gradually in the areas away from the Adirondacks, Tug Hill and North Country. One last cold surge will follow for a few days middle to end of next week to stop any bleeding… or runoff…
While still over a week away, I’m looking at solid pattern shift to warmer temperatures and a definite storm track W of Upstate NY. This looks to occur sometime between Saturday 2/27 and Monday 3/1. Will it end the season? Nope. We’ve had a solid 6 week stretch of cold and snow. There’s a lot in the bank so to speak, especially N of the Thruway and there will still be great riding to be found, but in the next 7-10 days we are going to start seeing less and less of it. I have no idea how far we get into March, and where, but I’m telling you it’s coming. If you want long distance rides, ex polar places you’ve never been to, places that haven’t been open for years but are now… your window to do it is getting narrower and narrower. Make the time now to explore great places that don’t usually get much traffic and use, mainly south of the Thruway. Because once we lose that base… it’s likely too late in the season to rebuild it.
Have an awesome weekend! So you know I may not be able to update again until Monday on the site… or just a quick share on Facebook. Thanks in advance for your patience and understanding. Rich
