OK folks… the clipper is looking moderate to strong in intensity. It is just hours away and is about to crush Upstate NY in a matter of hours with moderate to heavy snow and winds of 30-50 MPH. Since this looks like a good hit, and with increased flow and lake effect especially off of Lake Ontario, I have decided to RAISE my snowfall amounts. I sincerely hope by doing this that I am not overshooting the totals… but I also don’t want to undershoot them either. So here we are:
After this storm and wind machine blows on through, Friday Afternoon and Friday Night look mostly cloudy and below freezing with mostly cloudy skies and scattered snow showers. Any accumulations during this point in time look light. Looking into Saturday, it looks like a weaker clipper system with not as much strong wind comes blowing on through. I’ll do a snowfall accumulation map for this weekend storm tomorrow since I don’t want to confuse anyone with what’s coming, in what order.
Bottom line: YOU WILL BE ABLE TO RIDE THIS WEEKEND! Tug Hill and the Adirondacks are the best to decide. Choose one or the other. Don’t choose both because the amounts of snow in the Black River Valley are too low to cross, even after a 6-10 dump of snow on them. Other areas of Northern NY to consider riding would be Saratoga, Warren, St Lawrence, Franklin, Essex and Clinton Counties. Some trails will be better than others. Snowfall will be definitely low and nowhere near mid season February conditions. Just keep this in mind.
After the Holiday Weekend, we turn the corner. Not in a good way. During the time after President’s Day, temperatures warm well above freezing (30s to 40) over the Tug Hill, Adirondacks, Northern NY and the Catskills. Well into the 40s in CNY, WNY, the Southern Tier and the Capital Region. With the low amount of snow we have, and everyone and their dead grandmother going on in to brap all over whatever we get, it will turn to die hard conditions faster than you can say WHOMP THERE IT IS! Within 7 days we plan to go from nothing, to riding, to die hard, to back to sitting on most couches. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks I just don’t want to look at.
So RIDE WHILE YOU CAN, WHEN YOU CAN, AS SAFELY AS YOU CAN. Because this season is few a far between for riders in Upstate NY.
Rich Lupia
Upstate Snow
February 15, 2024
