The snow threat for Wednesday Night and Thursday has faded. The lake effect potential for Valentine’s Day is increasing. And the threat for better snows over President’s Day Weekend is increasing.
Good morning! After a few days off with variably cloudy skies and just some minor lake effect off of Lake Ontario Sunday and Monday, now it is time to get to right now then look forward.
RIGHT NOW
Snow cover is FABULOUS for areas from around Fair Haven, to south of Syracuse into parts of Cortland, Madison, and Chenango Counties, east through Otsego County then south into the Catskills then north to the Heldebergs just SW of Albany, then basically from the State Capital and Rensselaer County, northward all the way to the Canadian Border. If you are anywhere on or north of this line, YOU ARE GOLDEN! Snowpack is averaging 1 1/2 to over 3 FEET! For a while anyway. That’s because we know, even in the worst of winters, this stuff does eventually melt.
The snowpack is much less across the Hudson Valley, Southern Tier, The Finger Lakes, and Western NY. In these areas trails are either not operating or are operating on a limited basis because of the low snow cover. I have been seeing a lot about this. And then there is the Genesee Valley south of Rochester. NO SNOW. Seriously. There is snow everywhere around there, but not there. Why? Must be the weather pattern.
LOOKING AHEAD
Trouble is coming as the next storm approaches. The heaviest of the precipitation and snowfall will go to our north and west over Ontario, as the center of the low pressure goes from Ohio to the St. Lawrence Valley. This leaves Upstate NY in the warm sector. This means any snow that starts, changes quickly to sleet and freezing rain overnight Wednesday and into Thursday Morning, before changing to just plain rain showers on Thursday. This will not be a heavy rain or a bulk meltdown, but there will be some meltdown of the snow. At least a few inches worth.
Then afterwards much colder air comes in Thursday Night and into Valentine’s Day on Friday. This will kick up Lake Effect snow off of Lake Ontario mainly, because Lake Erie is just about 100% frozen over. Expect at least a few inches with several inches in the more intense bands. I will detail areas for this type of snow accumulation in tomorrow’s blog.
THE WEEKEND
This is where things get more interesting. Very interesting. A developing strong storm gets going over the Central US then makes a run for the Ohio Valley and then into Pennsylvania and off to Southern New England. It is still 4 to 5 days away, but if that track or a track just south of that holds up going into the higher resolution models by Thursday, we could be talking about our next decent winter storm. It is possible at this point. It is not definite. But just looking at what I am looking at right now, it is definitely something to watch out for. Especially on a busy holiday weekend.
NEXT WEEK
Temperatures go COLD. Like really cold. Like down into the teens for highs with lows near to below zero again. And a good shot at more lake effect snow off Lake Ontario, heavy at times, given the much colder air that will be coming in over the lakes. Then next Wednesday and especially into next Thursday, another significant storm is indicated on the GFS. Again it is the GFS so please take with a grain of salt. But again, another decent snowfall is possible. Not likely nor is it imminent. But is is POSSIBLE. We are 8-9 days away from this, the edge on which I will show anything. Again I am sorry Lake Erie is basically CLOSED but Lake Ontario is still very much OPEN FOR BUSINESS. At least right now it is.
That is the latest from me. Winter just goes on and on. The temperatures stay cold for the most part. Any thaws are quick and light. This is a good old fashioned winter. This winter is the best we have seen since 2015. That’s what we are saying.
Zack and Rich Lupia
Upstate Snow
February 11, 2025
Please thank our advertisers on Upstate Snow for 2024-25
Banner Sponsorship
Great Lakes Equipment
Enjem’s Flooring America
Ohio Ridge Riders
ilsnow.com
Southern Tug Hill Sno-Riders
Saratoga Snowmobile Association
Business Sponsorship
Wedge Life
Paton & Son Excavating and Landscaping
Personal Sponsorship
Jim and Colleen Andre
