Warm and windy conditions today will mean melting and compaction. Bitter cold air coming in during the day tomorrow, lasting through Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, will return us, one more time, to decent conditions for riding and enjoying winter. Then after that, literally, the bottom falls out. I think I hear the Safari’s warming up in the next room. But here is where we are today. Areas in dark blue and purple are areas with 1 to 2 feet of snow depth. We don’t have areas of the state in excess of 2 feet at this time. Normally in February we see that. Even in March. Heck, April 1, 2003 I saw 51″ snow on the level in Sears Pond, Montague, on the Tug Hill. It’s just a low snow year.
We have more than enough in the tank to get through today. Check. But then we have to get through next Wednesday through Friday, and it will be much much worse than today. *GULP* Yep. I’m writing this on February 11, in the middle of winter. Just over a week past Phil’s prediction of six more weeks of winter. I’m telling you right now. Phil lied. Spring is coming. And outside of Tug Hill proper and within the bounds of Adirondack Park, a lot of Upstate NY is looking like they will have big problems surviving the warmup middle to end of next week. President’s Day Weekend will, for sure, have nowhere near the playground we have right now. And that’s after factoring in some of the preemptive closures in effect. So here is what I’m seeing:
Today: 40’s everywhere. Rain starts in the afternoon and especially this evening. Models, even the NAM, have given up on the higher elevation snows at this point. It stays above freezing overnight and into Saturday morning, when the arctic front blows through.
Tomorrow: There will be a brief burst of snow with the arctic front. It will likely be just a dusting to an inch or two. Downwind of the lakes it could be maybe a little more, but don’t count on it. Drier air, chaotic winds and a more northerly flow are not friends of lake effect snow. Once the cold air settles in Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, we will not approach freezing until Tuesday PM at the least. If anything, probably closer to zero, especially Sunday and Monday.
Sunday: Sunny and COLD.
Monday: Sunny and COLD.
Tuesday: Increasing clouds but still some sun. After the bitter cold start, the afternoon will rise into the 20s with lower elevations approaching freezing. Then, Tuesday February 15th, is the LAST DAY OF WINTER 🙁
Wednesday: ALL BETS ARE OFF. Strong south winds kick in. Major warmth blasts into Upstate NY with 40s and even some lower elevation locations challenging 50. It is on Wednesday the 16th I expect the beginning of the end of snowmobile season for all of WNY, CNY, Southern Tier, Hudson Valley and the Capital Region. Areas NE of Syracuse, north of the Thruway will survive initially. How long is the question.
Thursday: 50s. Windy and warm. Not quite record high territory… but close… some lower elevation locations, especially in WNY and the Southern Tier could potentially threaten 60. Yikes. Then comes the rain. Not just a little, but a lot. Dare I say… he he he he he WIPEOUT 🙁
Friday: We are in the 50s and 60s across the Upstate. Strong low going to our north and west. Strong south winds. Heavy rain. The arctic cold front coming through, timing depends on the models, will end the bleeding in time for President’s Day Weekend, and the kids getting out of school. But the playground they can play on now, will not be that playground one week from today. It will not be good. Period.
Looking ahead into the week the kids are off from school, the last full week of February, it looks more like end of March or April. After next week’s wipeout… with little snow coming in back of it, the weather Gods say NO SNOW FOR YOU! And the blowtorch comes back on:
What can change this? The High pressure to our north and west, building over Minnesota. It was looking that way last week at this time, but then it strengthened to 1040+, brought the cold air in, and buried most of Upstate NY in good snows. This high is 10+ mb weaker, and the +PNA pattern that supported the strengthening high and shot of cold air coming in… eh… it’s not there. Much more likely the warm air wins this time around. It was a close call last week. This week, probably not. I’m not betting on it. If anything, I’m all in end of February will suck.
I know Sunday is the Super Bowl. Monday is Valentine’s Day. Tuesday is the 15th. These three days, are I believe, the last three days of decent snowmobiling in Upstate NY this whole winter. Talk about a short winter! With the long range staying above normal going into the last week of February, it’s not looking good. Either one of two things is going to happen: It will be like 2017 or 2018 where we get an epic storm, the pattern flips and we get 2-3 weeks of bonus winter in March and ride to the first day of spring. Or it doesn’t and we are done for the season. I have no idea what March holds yet. But as I said up above in the last paragraph, for end of February, it sucks. Period.
Get your last rides in NOW. If you get chances to ride in March, count it as icing on the cake. It’s to the point with what I’m seeing, Zack and I are thinking about doing something we said all along we would not do. I’ve ALWAYS been with my family for Super Bowl Sunday. I’ve ALWAYS been with Amy on Valentine’s Day since 2001. At the same time, my family knows how much Zack and I missed snowmobiling, how this is the last window, and Zack’s illness killed us from coming up last week. If we pass up coming up this weekend in the bitter cold, we are likely to spend the next 10 months wondering why we didn’t take the shot to come up. These details will be fought out today. Decision will be made for sure by tonight. Stay tuned. It has been nearly 2 years since we rode. We don’t want it to be 3 years. We will do our best.
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[…] more trouble is looming on the horizon for later next week. I’ll be lazy and just refer to Rich Lupia’s post on Upstate Snow. The moral of the story is to get here and ride sooner, rather than later, even if THIS weekend […]