No changes made to the forecast for this afternoon and tonight. Light to occasionally moderate snows predicted, particularly downwind of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. In particular, Tug Hill proper has the best chance of seeing in excess of 4″ of snow. This activity will clear out overnight tonight.
Don’t blink tomorrow because the weather changes fast. It will fly above freezing, with strong south winds and temps flying through the 40s again in the lower elevations of CNY, Southern Tier and WNY. Of all areas that could sustain the most damage to riding with less overall base and less cold air, anyone west of I-81, tomorrow’s warmup is trouble. It stays at or above freezing tomorrow night into Saturday morning as well, before… THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
It moves through during the day on Saturday. Models vary on how much snow it produces, and how much lake effect is behind it. There could be some, but I’m not betting a lot. Usually when these cold air masses come through they are dry, there is wind shear and elements don’t line up well for an extended lake response. Especially this season. Whatever snow pack we have left on Saturday will literally be frozen in place. By Sunday morning, it’s COLD. It stays cold through Super Bowl Sunday and Valentine’s Day. Even Tuesday morning starts off bitter cold with many locations near or below zero.
I’m putting an alert out for middle to end of next week. Wednesday the 16th to Friday the 18th, these three days, are looking increasingly BAD. I’ll give you the Euro version of this right now, which is much more PG rated. The GFS is Rated R and would be, well, akin to my 60s friends, the Safari’s, coming to town. Showing this on days 7-9 would only add to your nightmares. But just know… as it gets closer, my alert level will go up each day depending on what I’m seeing. Bottom line – If you want the best conditions of the year, only through Tuesday February 15th is promised to you. After that, all bets are off.
I’m seriously hoping the snowmobile season doesn’t go into regional mode or as Darrin would say, “Die Hard” mode after February 15th, but it’s a low snow winter. When we lose snow, we don’t have as much chance to get some back to get the trails back to normal. That trip I was going to take, which got delayed because of my son’s illness, I don’t want to have to go to 20 miles of “hey, at least we rode” instead of 200 miles of smiles. That’s an awful lot of driving for little reward. I’ll still do it, because the though of waiting yet another 10 months is that much more painful. Until next time, pray for cold and snow.
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