The snow overperformed yesterday, which I am sure given the milder temperatures, was a blessing to those that got it. We have to survive until sometime during the day on Saturday before the arctic cold front comes through and puts us back into the deep freeze for Super Bowl Sunday and Valentine’s Day. In the meantime, we have to fight off the increasingly longer and higher sun angle days that start to become more noticeable in mid-February, but especially beyond. Getting above freezing is part one. With sun, is a double whammy. Temperatures today in between clipper systems will race above freezing, ranging from 35-45 across most of Upstate NY. The best chances for 40-45 are lower elevations and WNY in particular. Some Western NY clubs (and some in the Capital Region with low snow) have shut trails temporarily, groomed, and hope everything holds until the cold returns this weekend.
Some help is on the way Thursday. It will knock temps back mainly below 40, and Thursday afternoon/night, with a well defined lake effect flow for about 6 hours behind the clipper cold front, it will be enough to do some damage. Leaning from my mistake yesterday, I expanded the accumulating snows (dusting – 2″) zone and honed in on the higher snowfall potential across the western Adirondacks and in particular, Tug Hill and the environs immediately east of Lake Ontario in Oswego and Jefferson Counties. Don’t get too excited, but here it is
Friday it’s like it never even happened. Warm air advection kicks on IN A HURRY and we are right back up to at or above 40 degrees again. An even stronger clipper and associated arctic cold front, well advertised, moves in Friday afternoon and especially Friday night. It’s warm enough out ahead of this it could very well start as rain in the lower elevations, especially WNY and CNY with temps closer to 42 than 32. But overnight Friday into Saturday morning, a quick dusting to 2 with colder temps moving in should help to end this melting cycle. It’s during the day on Saturday the arctic front comes through, and with it, temps drop during the day. By Sunday morning, it will feel like a whole another world out there. If you plan to ride Super Bowl Sunday and/or Valentines Day, BUNDLE UP!!!
The outlook into next week is still mixed. Some models go warm, some not as much, but the bottom line is this: We are not guaranteed snowmobile life much longer. The last three years snowmobile season ended abruptly the first week of March. It seems to be the pattern. We are just a mere 3 weeks away from that. Not saying it’s going to happen or not, but in this low snow winter, we don’t have much margin for error. One event could end it all. It’s not on the horizon yet, but I’m just saying, it’s snowmobile season. You spend a truckload of money, literally on this sport. Take the days off now and make the most of what you can now. Don’t wait until March. It could be there. It might not be again. Just some friendly advice.
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John Schoff Memorial Vintage Ride – January 15, 2022
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Thousand Islands Snowmobile Club
MEMBERS
Chris Rinck
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M&M, SnoCh!c and SnoL!fe
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DV
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JAYSOS!
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Chautauqua Boat Works
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Woodhull Creek Clan
