Lake Ontario and Lake Erie will sneeze later today and tonight and blow anywhere from a dusting to a few inches of snow inland. Areas with persistent flow, especially this afternoon and evening particularly Tug Hill proper, northern Oswego, northern Oneida and western Lewis Counties could see localized amounts of 2, 3, 4 inches, maybe 5 on the high side. This as a reinforcing shot, a weak shot, of colder air comes in and is just enough to wake up the lakes briefly.
The fact I’m making a snow map for this, relatively piddly “event” is just another reminder of the below normal snowfall year we are in yet again.
Wednesday and Thursday we see temps bounce back above freezing during the daytime. Some lower elevation locations may threaten or break 40 again. For low snow areas, combined with areas of sunshine, this will mean melting, compaction, and areas of used trail getting skanky quick.
Friday our strong clipper and associated arctic cold front approaches. Increasing clouds and south winds are looking more likely on Friday, which could put a hurt on WNY in particular, but all of Upstate NY will be above freezing, with the threat for some rain/snow mix or even just some rain showers Friday PM into Friday evening. Once the cold front comes through, you’ll know it. Saturday morning will be much colder than Friday and temperatures will fall faster than gravity during the daytime Saturday. If you are planning a weekend ride, particularly Saturday, I have two words of advice: BUNDLE UP! It will get below zero again this weekend.
The coastal storm we were hinting at is still showing up on the models and still heading from the Carolinas well offshore, to the point to where only the fish will know what’s going on early next week. With activity forming in the Pacific NW this weekend into next week, that’s a more troubling sign longer term. The more active the west coast gets, usually the worse it is for us. Usually. It’s a change worth noting. And as if I don’t need to tell you this winter with lower snow conditions, get out and ride now, any chance that you can. If you blink, you’ll miss it.
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