Revised forecast bringing heavier snows south and east over more of Upstate NY. Still a close call with mix/mess in the Capital Region, Catskills, and Hudson Valley. Areas to the north and west like WNY and NNY will be nearly all snow. A little mix/mess, especially at the start for the Finger Lakes, CNY and the Southern Adirondacks. I have also refined the ranges to account for all possibilities, indicated Tug Hill and Adirondacks, as well as the higher elevations of WNY as the bullseye for this storm. Ground zero. Someone will walk away with 18″+ from this storm, and possibly closer to 2 feet of snow.
In the meantime, ignore today. Highs 40 or into the 40s across most of Upstate NY today. There will be melting and compaction. Clubs with marginal snow conditions have already CLOSED temporarily. Please respect closures. Please try you best not to ride today, Thursday and/or Friday. I know some will. Just be very careful, especially with low visibilities.
A few things I need to point out with this storm:
- This is a TWO DAY EVENT. With multiple low pressures and shortwaves riding along the front, there will be periods of heavier snow, and periods of lighter snow, even nothing at all. With long duration events, this is all part of the game. Because we are so impatient in 2022, we are so quick to say, “snow didn’t come, blown forecast” when you hit a lull, then the snow hits and you are like “where did this come from?” Do not judge the storm and/or forecast until Friday night when it is all cleared out and DONE. At that point, say what you want. It is what it is. But this will be, no doubt, a huge benefit for most snowmobile trails around the state!
- Thursday Morning/Afternoon is wave 1. This is the best chance of seeing rain or mix/mess. This, again, doesn’t mean we were wrong. WE ARE EXPECTING IT. AND SO ARE THE MODELS. Just put in your head Thursday afternoon it could still be light rain with no snow accumulation where you are, especially south of the Thruway. Thursday evening is when it should be quiet. Snowfall should be light Thursday dinner time and right before you go to bed.
- Thursday Night/Friday Morning is wave 2. This is the big one. This is when the most heavy snow will fall all across the state. This is when snowfall rates will reach 1″-2″ per hour. This period of snow will be 5-10 hours long. Some areas in this 5-10 hour period could get in excess of a foot of snow just on this alone. It tapers off after you wake up Friday morning, before lunchtime.
- Friday afternoon is wave 3. This is the last gasp of the storm. This wave will bring most of the accumulating snows on the southern and eastern fringes of Upstate. Areas with Tr-2, 2-4 and some 4-8, those that get almost nothing on wave 1, some on wave 2, this wave 3 will bring you snow as well. This will last 3-6 hours, and be over by Friday evening, as high pressure builds in.
So, with all that being said, the heavy snow will land on a good part of Upstate NY. The less snow, the more mix. If you don’t have but a few inches by Thursday evening, do not worry. IT’S A TWO DAY FORECAST. If you don’t have a lot of snow by Noon Friday I’d get worried then. But most folks will do good on this storm. It will be one of the biggest snowfall events of the year, if not the biggest for parts of Upstate NY.
One last look at the revised map:
This weekend will be bitterly cold Saturday with strong high pressure overhead. Because this moves in so quickly behind the storm, this is why the lake effect behind the storm Friday PM will be little to NONE. Sunday should be nice with sunshine after a bitter cold start with high pressure remaining overhead. There will be some clouds on your southern horizon, especially south of the Thruway, from the storm forming off the Carolinas and Virginias, but it should remain dry as the storm is well to the south and east of Upstate NY. Monday and Tuesday for the most part should be uneventful. And we are thankful for that.
Why?
Because. We are coming. That’s why. I’ve moved things around and so has Zack. We will be inbound Saturday, riding and reporting on the trails Sunday, Monday and Tuesday across the North Country, Adirondacks and Tug Hill. We have already set up rides with friends. We will cement details as we get closer. We will get all the footage we need to new promos, new videos, and finally give you guys something you haven’t had from us in 23 months as of today. A ride report! We are super stoked to be coming up!
Expect a ton of activity on social media with our trip. I will try to keep the Morning Blog going as usual, but it will likely be short and sweet because when we arrive, we want to ride. Not sit and write blog posts. I can do that on Facebook from my phone in the woods. Assuming I have signal! So if you have not liked Upstate Snow on Facebook yet, my only question is this: WHY NOT?
And this is another opportunity to say THANK YOU to all 64 members, 19 sponsors and partners that support Upstate Snow! Want to help us out with the trip? Help us throw an extra gallon of gas in the sleds? Literally, a gallon. With the gas prices right now that’s about one for me, one for Zack. That would be nearly $10. That’s all you need to become a MEMBER! For $60, I’ll throw up your link to your site and recognize you as a SPONSOR. For bigger options, please email me at rich@richlupia.com. I’ll get you going. We are able to do all of this BECAUSE OF YOU. Thank you for keeping Upstate Snow healthy and growing for 10 years!
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SPONSORS
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JAYSOS!
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