Wide Right.
No i’m not reliving the nightmare from the Buffalo Bills Super Bowl XXV loss 29 years and 2 days ago… although in a small way, given how our winter from the angle of a snow lover has been, it might as well be as painful.
All models and atmospheric trends now pointing with certainty to the weekend scenario. It’s not snowmageddon or anything like that. I don’t care what an odd run of the GFS at 100+ hours and/or accuweather and/or what random free news sites that are otherwise obscure say: Just because a lot say it or share it, doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.
The jet stream is too fast, and they won’t “phase” or come together this weekend off the Atlantic coast. That’s why we won’t get the huge storm. And why models have had a tough time resolving it until we get this close. A low will develop near the coast and rain/snow will be likely near the coast and the big cities this weekend. But without “phasing” and without the jet stream and blocking patterns setting up correctly, it will not turn up the coast and nail Upstate NY.
It will go wide right.
At least it’s cold over the next few days which will give the melting a break
At least the northern stream weak system/clipper will bring some minor snows this weekend. Timing and possible accumulations still too early to call accurately. A guess is a few inches but nothing big.
Yes indications are next week big cold and/or snow may return and the pattern may get busy. I hope so. But until we break out of this neverending tease pattern, i’m not biting. Get me within 48-72 hours of an event with snow and/or big cold and/or lake effect I’ll get excited. Until then, I will remain quiet.
Please forgive my lack of frequent reporting. On the personal side things have been very busy. Overwhelmingly good and bad at the same time. Add to that great uncertainty with the models beyond 84-96 hours, constant teases about winter coming but it doesn’t, not many places to ride, not enough time to trailer there and ride… I haven’t wanted to write or do much. I’m only human and appreciate your understanding. Even though i’m a guy that looks on the bright side and glass half full, we all have those times.
Be good. Ride where you can, if you can, as soon as you can. Tomorrow is not guaranteed to any of us. What happened to Kobe Bryant on Sunday, his daughter, and seven others should serve as fresh reminder of this undeniable fact of life. May they all rest in peace, and please pray for their families and all those impacted.
Trail Talk Podcast, the “Guide to Your Ride” being cut again tonight with Chris Rinck from STH. We’ll post it as soon as it’s done.
Best,
Rich
