Lake effect fluff behind with our clipper continues this morning across parts of Upstate NY. Latest model runs and radar trends indicate enough will stick around to put out an additional snowfall map for today. It’s not a lot, a lot of it will be fluff, but better fluffy than nothing. In this winter of scraps as I called it online the other day, every inch counts. No matter how we get it.
The cold is still on schedule with Wednesday and Thursday being brutally cold, but just a notch less than previous cold blasts that have hit Upstate NY in recent weeks. Still below zero, especially Thursday morning, but more like 0 to -15 instead of -15 to -30. There is a certain point where cold loses its meaning, probably around -20 or worse. But you can tell. Dang cold but not OMG cold. Anyway…
Friday our next cold front comes on down with snow showers. At this point it looks like a dusting to an inch or two. While this is happening, the Nor’easter will start to set up off the coast of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic states. If you’ve been following weather, and social media closely, this has been well advertised. We didn’t make much of it here until yesterday morning when the models started backing it into Upstate NY some, with New England taking the brunt regardless of model. Yesterday morning the Canadian was the best, followed by the GFS then the Euro was way deep and way to the east. This morning the Canadian and Euro have flipped! The vaunted Euro now brings it closer to the coast, and closer to hitting areas east of I-81, especially Hudson Valley, Capital Region and Champlain Valleys. GFS still continues on it’s meh course in the middle of all the models while Canadian is suddenly much weaker and heading for Downeast Maine.
Ensembles are a little more consistent and paint the storm on all runs close to Cape Cod but to the east of it. This is a much more believable scenario as I don’t trust the Euro deterministic going to 961 off the coast of Long Island. Just like I didn’t trust it at 946 off Cape Cod yesterday. So what do I think? We now are at Day 5. We are 2 days away from putting first numbers on this storm. The biggest things I’m looking at are what this thing will do in the Carolinas when it forms, and where the 500mb and 700mb lows are. These, not deterministic model runs, ultimately determine when and where the snow will fall. I’ll dive more into this tomorrow when it is Day 4. But all I can tell you is, there is hope for snow east of I-81. The hope gets greater the closer to New England you get. Will it be in feet? Probably not in Upstate NY. New England, definitely. Inches? Yes, potentially several inches in eastern NY. Albany area and points south and east should start getting ready for a big hit this weekend. North and west be on alert. From the ‘Cuse westbound, just a cold weekend. That’s my take at the moment. I know you all want numbers now, to your town, and if I’m off any be right here with your laugh emojis, but I’d rather be right than first. In this case you can’t teach and old dog, new tricks.
Oh, and one last thing before I go today… put in your head a warmup for second half of next week. All models and ensembles are signaling temps rising into the 30s and 40s, with a threat for rain. It’s still day 9-10 stuff, and what I’m showing is deterministic GFS, but all indications are pointing in that direction. Clubs with thin cover, this is why yesterday I said this might be the best 10 days of the season… because this is a light winter, fighting for scraps, and one warmup for two days can do a lot of damage to the less than average snowpack across Upstate NY. We shall see. Some have argued “It’s a pattern change and we are done”. Even in the brutal winter of 2002-03, which went from November to April, there was a warm spell in early February, a break in the cold with sleet, freezing rain then rain for a few days before it got cold again. I remember this distinctly because I rode sled immediately after the cooldown and remembering how icy the trails were, especially in the lower elevations. There are always blips on the radar. The blips mean more when you have 8″ of snow on the ground as opposed to 20″. Day by day we go and press on. Ride while you can. You just never know what will come beyond 7-10 days…
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