Some snow returns to the forecast! Arctic front Saturday night and Sunday morning will reinforce the bone chilling weather around Upstate NY. This front, combined with winds aligning off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, albeit briefly, will bring some bonus snow to the equation. Is it a ton? No. Is it more than an inch or two? Downwind of the lakes YES. Again I wish the lake effect would benefit everyone, but whoever gets it will be nice and happy.
Before I get to Sunday and beyond, lets back up a second. BONE CHILLING COLD today across Upstate NY, and another BONE CHILLING NIGHT tonight. During the daytime on Saturday, temperatures will moderate. By the afternoon most locations will range between 15-25 above zero with little wind. Honestly, Saturday, with the sunshine and moderating temps, could potentially be the best Saturday of all this season across Upstate NY. Hoping for more snow and sunny Saturday’s, but hey, take what we can get! If you want to ride off of Tug Hill or off the Adirondacks, I would like to suggest pretty much anywhere in northern NY (St Lawrence, Franklin and Clinton Counties), south and east of Syracuse (S Onondaga, Madison, Cortland and Chenango Counties) and Western NY is looking good, although the lower elevation trails closer to Buffalo, Batavia and Rochester are THIN.
OK so after the cold front blows through with a brief burst of snow (dusting to an inch across most of Upstate NY), the areas downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will cash in. These numbers on the map are Saturday night and Sunday only. We are three days out on this, but enough within the window I can throw some numbers out with confidence. Best chances will be the northern part of Tug Hill and closer to the Watertown area with the winds being 250-260. Some upslope will happen just to the south as usual. Off Lake Erie, anywhere from Buffalo, southbound through Orchard Park, down to Springville. The areas that are thinner than to the south might get the best boost out of this short event.
Sunday night into Monday morning will be another BONE CHILLING night with areas north of the Thruway plunging below zero. Again. Monday will see a moderation of temperatures just like Saturday. Next clipper system comes through Monday night into Tuesday morning. This clipper system is stronger, and tracking close to us so a few inches across Upstate NY is certainly possible, with additional lake effect and lake enhanced snows in back of it for Tuesday before, yet again, it gets COLD.
This is the pattern we are locked in now. Rinse. Repeat. We’ve got a halfway decent amount of snow across the state, but still below normal for mid-winter. No big Nor’easters on the horizon. No huge lake effect events on the horizon. Lake Erie, which normally begins to ice over in the third week of January is still WIDE OPEN thanks to the warm fall, and warm December. This will be a blessing to the WNY clubs. If anything major changes, I’ll let you know. But heading into this weekend, count your blessings on the cold staying around, freezing things down, making snowmobile clubs, ski resorts, and anything winter related have BIG SMILES! It’s about time!
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