We are chocked full in this morning blog! You get a recap of the storm this past weekend, a look at the week ahead (more promising), and a ride report from last night!
First lets get the bad/rough news out of the way here… This is something not everyone will show you or is comfortable showing you. This…
As you see, more than half of the state the forecast was pretty solid. Definitely areas in yellow where I was a little off range. Red is not good and for a post that got seen by tens of thousands, some who saw this site for the first time… it was not a good outing. In short I should have gone with the forecast changes I suggested in the video Saturday PM at the start of the event when dry air was killing snow accumulations in Central NY and the Capital Region. It also limited the upslope flow I and other forecasters were concerned about. In Hamilton and Fulton Counties, southern Erie, Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties, it was a bad miss. Overestimated Lake Ontario overall and how far the heavy snows would come to the east. Underestimated Lake Erie totally. While Lake Ontario flared up and showed great power early Sunday morning which I thought could still save my forecast idea, the windshear and mean flow dropped it south and weakened it quickly before much more snow could accumulate. I still verified some of the 10-20 inch area but just barely made the low end of the bullseye on Tug Hill. Still a decent event with solid snow accumulations, which you’ll see in my ride report later on, but overall in the high snow areas off Lake Ontario it was not as good as advertised.
I’m generally conservative in snow forecasting and rarely the one to throw the deep ball. I threw it. I got picked off. I’ve blown worse before in 22+ years, TRUST ME. I’ll have to wait for a second chance to score well in front of a big audience like that again. 105K on Facebook and 50K on the website in 2 days doesn’t come around often. Some may not give us the chance again and that’s okay. I do my best every time and leave it on the field, win or lose. Where the chips fall, they fall.
MOVING ONWARD…
The week ahead will be very quiet with no significant precipitation until the weekend. Cold days and nights for the next few days but Thursday and Friday the temperatures will creep above freezing during the day. 30’s to low 40’s. Not that bad in the normally colder and snow belt areas but for lower elevations that just opened trails with minimal snow cover to do it, this may be an issue later this week. The ride advice is simple. The way things are going this year, you’d better be proactive and not sit on the couch. Take what you’ve got or wait for perfect conditions that might only show up once this year if at all. In the meantime there’s plenty to ride and a lot of folks going out to get it.
So next weekend… At first the models were big on cold, clippers and a possible Nor’easter coming to town… if anything hitting farther south than Upstate. Then right before the storm we got this weekend, they flip flopped totally to a western track, shooting 50s and rain at Upstate which would once again hit the reset button on our season. Thankfully, now getting inside seven days time, the models are starting to agree on temperatures going back down this weekend and a nice storm approaching from the south and west… jumping to the coast of NJ and LI. Here are the current model and ensemble averages for Saturday 1/25/2020 at 7 PM
So this means we are in the running for a potential storm next weekend which would actually ADD TO A BASE for many areas, except WNY. This is a nice possibility to look at. I’m not speculating on anything and do you think I’m in the mood to put up a snow map on this one? Yeah… No… just keep doing the snow dance and when we get close enough (say Friday morning) I’ll step back into the pocket to fire the pass to the receiver for a first down.
RIDE REPORT SUNDAY NIGHT 1/19/2020
RIDE WHILE YOU GOT IT!
We went to our friend’s farm in Remsen and for the first time this year, Penn Mountain opened! So did Ohio! So for the first time this season, we didn’t need to trailer anywhere. Just unload and go right off their farm onto the Penn Mountain C4 trail. It was my friend, his oldest, me and Zack. Four boys out to score nice trails on a Sunday Night. The groomer went by heading towards Remsen so we tried that first. After crossing the neighboring field, clanking rocks and stumps despite 10-15 inches of snowfall, they said it was better the other way towards Bailey’s and Hinckley. So off we went. They were right. A nice groomed ride to Hinckley Dam and the not so fun connection to the Ohio Ridge Riders system once the groomer ends above the dam. Once we hit Ohio, we hit awesomeness! Heading out on C4 was sweet with some tracks and still lots of powder on the trail. We passed the turnoff for Poland and figured if we were clanking on 10-15 inches in Remsen, the 8-12 down to the south hitting the fields on top of Buck Hill wouldn’t be much better. And the seasonal road rush continued on C4B eastbound to Grant, running comfortably and safely at 45-55 MPH with few bumps if any. After clearing Grant we flew down C4B all the way to Snyder Road before turning north to the Ohio Tavern. It got a little bumpy towards the end but not bad at all. After a brief break at Ohio Tavern with 20 miles in, we turned tail to backtrack to the farm. It was a blast running through the trails with decent snow coverage, not a lot of ice (although some corners were definitely slick), some powder, some groomed, thin road riding but not tearing up the sleds by any means. We caught Dan Hudon at his place on C4 just above Baileys after turning in for the night, and rode the last few miles on groomed PERFECTION! We made it back to the farm with 40 miles in 2 hours and couldn’t believe how good it got after our epic meltdown last weekend. We had low expectations and hit a great ride instead!
Outlook for this week: If you are going to take days off, do it now. Even though the sun isn’t a menace on trails in late January like it is in March, it will work with above freezing temps late week to make things harder on the clubs. Expect heavy traffic today for MLK day as many are off and probably more than usual Tuesday and Wednesday. If the storm hits this weekend, the last week of January could be the best of the year!
Have a great week!
Rich
