Changes to the forecast, with sleet and freezing rain pushing farther north and west from the low, will necessitate a lowering of the snow totals by just a little bit. It’s still gonna snow. Western NY will still get the jackpot and be mostly snow with this, especially Rochester and Buffalo. But CNY, Southern Tier, Tug Hill and Adirondacks I have to back off just a little bit. Some are backing off to as little as 1-3 for storm totals. I’m not willing to go that far just yet, but I’m dropping the numbers. Again, THIS is why I don’t like putting out numbers at day 3-4. Because there are trends and changes. The changes that are nailing us in the Carolinas now, will carry up to Upstate NY and everywhere in between. So get mad if you want, yell at me if you want. It’s not going to change what’s going to happen. I’m just the messenger.
NAM3K in high resolution shows us hour by hour what we are expecting. Snow to start, heavy at times, Sunday night. By the time you wake up Monday morning, it’s sleet to freezing rain across a lot of the state. Even to the west of 81, a period of sleet and freezing rain will get as far W as Rochester and Buffalo. This will limit totals a little even in western NY which is why I backed off the 9-18 to 7 to 14. 5 to 9 I’ve backed off to 3-7. 2-5 I’ve backed off to 1-3. In short, y’all will get mad and make a huge deal about it, but I’m taking off 2 inches across the state. @ inches. Because my initial forecast was A LOT LOWER than AccuBalls, The Weather (sometimes) Channel, and the app that you use and still somehow swear by, not at!
The dry slot is real and we expect to happen along and east of Interstate 81. This will mean several hours of little or no precipitation. Don’t say it’s over or a bust until Monday night, after the wrap around snows kick in during the afternoon. So for a lot of areas in the 3-7 for example, you’ll get 1-3, 2-4 on the front end overnight Sunday, then the mix mess in the morning Monday, then the break which could be several hours, then another few inches on the back side in the afternoon Monday. Got it? Don’t say I didn’t warn you! Because I did. I’m in the uncomfortable position of counting on wrap around moisture in the afternoon to make some of these totals, especially the higher end ones in WNY. I still think localized 18″ amounts are possible in WNY, GFS is going gonzo with that, but I still think exception not the rule.
There will be some lake effect Monday night into Tuesday morning. It will not be huge. But there will be some nonetheless. Probably just a few inches. I had thought about a snowfall map for that, but will hold off for now. So add another 1-3 maybe downwind of Lake Ontario?
Still looking at our clipper overnight Tuesday through Wednesday with general light snows then lake effect in back of this. That part of the forecast remains unchanged. The cold weather continues through the rest of this week into this weekend and beyond. That part has not changed either. The 504 thicknesses across Upstate NY in back of that clipper should tell you 30s and 40s WILL NOT BE IN YOUR FUTURE! Maybe not below zero like now, but much closer to zero than to freezing. That means whatever we get with this storm tomorrow and Monday. Whatever stuff we get during the week, will stick around. Unless if 50,000 sleds beat it down like on the Tug Hill.
Bottom Line: As much as we all want this storm to revive snowmobiling across NY, this singular storm is probably not going to do it for everybody. The consistent cold and snows, the lighter kind that add up over time, will ultimately be what gets more trails opened, more systems operational, and more places to ride. Don’t forget that. And I’ll be with you all along the way.
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