Dang it’s cold out! Snow’s over. The bullseye area, the 12″+ snows I hit almost PERFECTLY. The rest, especially south of the thruway… well… UGLY. I’m really sorry the 3-6, and localized 6-12 south of the Thruway didn’t materialize like I thought. I live to fight another day. Such is lake effect. This storm is HISTORY and for the next 5-10 days should serve to be by far the biggest lake effect event of the season. So what’s coming?
Well if you’re looking for a blowtorch warmup like December, sorry, ain’t happening. Are you looking for never ending lake effect? Sorry, ain’t happening either. Are you looking for bitter cold? Well, there’s gonna be some from time to time. Sometimes at this level of cold. Are you looking for the big Nor’easters? Sorry… unless we get some changes in the pattern, Nor’easters will blow up elsewhere.
BOTTOM LINE
What we’ve got is what we’ve got. The playground has expanded significantly from a few days ago. In short anything NORTH of Syracuse to Watertown, east through the Mohawk Valley to Fulton County then north into the Adirondacks. Instead of miles, it’s now possible to get some 100+ milers, maybe a 200 miler if you play your cards right and don’t mind getting beat up on the trails. Is it midseason? NO. Are we limited to just seasonal roads on the hill? NO. Can I ride from Binghamton to Malone like last year? NO. Good news: Cold and bouts of light snow should keep the playground from shrinking. Bad news: Dramatic expansion of the playground is UNLIKLEY at this point, at least through MLK weekend.
SHORT TERM
After today’s brutal chill, Wednesday is a whole lot better. NORMAL! Lower elevations will get close to freezing. Thursday and Friday there will be a weak cold front near Upstate NY. Most of the moisture and dynamics with this will be well away from Upstate NY, but lingering boundaries will force light snow to develop: Dusting to an inch or two Thursday. Could be another dusting to an inch or two Thursday night into Friday. We may get some weak lake response, but it’s not going to move the needle that much.
THIS WEEKEND
It gets screwy. The BIG Nor’easter blows up off the coast and takes aim at Nova Scotia as a Category 2 hurricane. The Saskatchewan Screamer diving south along the Mississippi Valley goes ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. This sets up Saturday night into Sunday A RARE SOUTHEASTERN SNOWSTORM, with accumulating snows getting into places like the Upstate of South Carolina (Where I live), before it slides off the Carolina coast and blows up into yet another Nor’easter well offshore. For areas with little to no snow on the ground, it will feel like an insult. I’m sorry.
NEXT WEEK
Another shot of BRUTALLY COLD AIR follows after this by this time next week. Normally this would be a signal for heavy lake effect snow in the Monday-Wednesday time frame next week. but this is Day 7-9 forecast wise at this time. Depending on the exact evolution of the storms, and how the cold air comes in, there could be something. In short, too far out to say for sure. Eyes are on it though.
In the meantime, get ready to ride the clubs to the north of the Thruway over the next several days! Tug Hill, the clubs between Tug Hill and the Thruway and the southern part of the Adirondacks look GOOD! Please DOUBLE CHECK with clubs to see if they are open, and what help they still need. I’ll be back here keeping an eye on the trends over the coming days and I’ll be “on the lookout” for any big snows that might pop up. Until then, keep it shiny side up, ride safe, ride right and help people everyday in every way, regardless of what it is 😉
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