A beautiful Saturday. Mix/Mess Sunday. Lake Effect guns on BLAST Monday. BITTER COLD TUESDAY. Quiet the rest of next week, remaining cold and nice for snowmobiling and winter weather enthusiasts.
WHERE CAN I RIDE TODAY?
I’ll start with the snow cover map just to reiterate we are WAY behind normal and trying to do something with almost nothing. I’ve seen tons of reports in the last 24 hours. Some are OK. Most are not. Still not enough snow. Of greatest note, the western side of Tug Hill, normally a snow bowl, has not been with recent events. Redfield, Osceola and TC Riders are three huge clubs that usually have action and have critical connections. Every single one of those three clubs is closed. Don’t even try there. Your small universe, which is sure to be destroyed today (at least somewhat) is STH (Barrows/Highmarket) west to Camp Two/Four but no farther. Up to TRR’s Tabolt’s Corners, Flat Rock, then west into Valley’s Montague area (snow THIN in the fields), and Barnes Corners/Worth. The woods trail to Tuggers is mudded up, shot, and closed with gates locked now. When I say small universe, I mean SMALL. Adirondacks all I know of is certain spots in the Old Forge/Inlet area, Perkins Clearing, Moose River Plains. Even Speculator Tree Farm is borderline to OUT. Farther to the north, Franklin County (please double check with clubs) seem to have enough snow for a small playground between Tupper Lake/Lake Clear Jct and Malone. Unsure of St Lawrence County at the moment… no word on their county site yet. But today, that’s all you’ve got. This is NOT gospel. Double check with clubs, expect changes to these conditions, and don’t get angry/flight with folks that still have trails closed signs up. No one wants this fight.
HOW BAD WILL TOMORROW BE?
Not bad. We’re looking at a 6-8 hour window of above freezing temps, peaking in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s. With snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain all mixed in. What I call a “Mix/Mess”. During the afternoon tomorrow, as the leading edge of colder air comes in, we go to all snow. By Sunday Night, all snow everywhere. The precipitation will be light to moderate, not heavy, and will add moisture to the base developing.
HOW GOOD WILL THE LAKE EFFECT BE?
Good. This is a decent event, even by Upstate NY January standards. Many portions of Upstate NY, especially downwind of Lake Ontario will get accumulating snows. Even in the lower elevations like Utica and Syracuse. It’s not a major event by any means, at least not yet, but it’s also not a minor event like most of our lake events have been so far this winter. Lake snows get going and blowing Sunday Night and into Monday Morning. It starts on the Tug Hill proper, then migrates south into CNY and the Mohawk Valley, bringing a slick morning commute from Utica/Rome to Syracuse with a few inches of snow. Then it lifts north and becomes a solid band as the air gets colder, instability grows and temperatures hold steady/fall. The NAM goes all the way back to the hill. The Euro is indicating it will stay closer to the Thruway. This is the main reason why I’m not as specific with the amounts, more general, and why I’m not going as high yet. I see credence with the setup to push totals in the highest areas above 18″ for total accumulation, but with the band being a moving target, keep it lower & spread out…
Monday afternoon into Monday evening, the band is rocking N of the Thruway, dumping 1-3 inches per hour. Then the arctic front arrives Monday evening through Monday night and blows the band from N of the Thruway to S of the Thruway by Tuesday morning as the flow turns from W to decidedly NW, we lose the low level moisture, and it gets cold enough to freeze your nose hairs. Overall this looks like a GODSEND for many areas N of the Thruway. If all goes well, many more places should be open later next week. Fingers crossed.
As high pressure builds overhead Tuesday, I expect the band to dissipate in the morning. No more lake flow. Temperatures on Tuesday will be the big deal, coldest of the season, with sunshine and temps struggling to get out of the single digits… or even above zero N of the Thruway. The big blue high will bring more sunshine Wednesday and Thursday next week with temperatures slowly moderating each day, but nothing above freezing in sight, even in the lower elevations (20s at best).
There are rumblings of an MLK Weekend Nor’easter. Models are showing something at this time. With that still being 7-8 days away, I’m not going to speculate much on that at this time.
BOTTOM LINE
IF you choose to ride today, be safe, low expectations, use this as a test day. And by test I don’t mean 0-100 MPH tests. Remember, you’re not the only one out there, and your actions determine the safety of others. Be stupid, win stupid prizes! Be smart and respectful… be respected and smart! Better conditions are coming! Be patient. Enjoy the weekend!
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