Ch Ch Changes! Several changes of note to the weather in the short term and in the longer term to get to. All of it impacts Upstate NY. Almost everything is a positive. Almost…
WHERE’S MY LAKE EFFECT SNOW!
The widely shared NWS Buffalo Winter Storm Watch since Monday afternoon for 12-18, in some areas even 18-24 inches of Lake Effect Snow is… well… somewhere! But it’s not in the City of Buffalo or City of Watertown right now. The bands have taken their time forming and will drift north into the target areas during the day today. I’m nervous even leaving the 5-10+ in these areas. But. These bands will be capable of 1-2″+/hr snows. So I only need a few hours of this to verify the low end. Therefore, I’m sticking and staying with the forecast, which is only through 7 PM tonight. Inches, not feet, is the call on this one. We’ll get some, but not a ton.
WHAT ABOUT THE CUTTER?
The models that dove way far south yesterday have come back north a little. Not enough to warrant a big change in the forecast. I do think the steadier 2″ or more snows tonight through tomorrow will get closer to I-88 so I lifted that 2″ line to the north. But most of this hits areas without snowmobile trails. The rest of the state tonight through tomorrow will see general light snows of a dusting to an inch or two. As Darrin from ILSNOW would call it… WHITE PAINT.
WHAT HAPPENS TO THE LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY?
So the lake snows that get going today will not be sheared apart and die like we first thought. It will instead become “lake enhanced” snow. This is excellent news for the snowbelt areas, particularly Tug Hill proper. As winds go from SW to W to NW over the course of 18-24 hours, this will allow the guns off Lake Ontario to drop a nice application of additional snows over the Tug Hill, the entire Tug Hill, western Adirondacks, and into areas south of Syracuse into the hills of Onondaga, Madison, Cortland and Chenango Counties. These extra inches of snow, as much as 4-8 on Tug Hill proper, could very well be the jump start to get at least a few trails open for this weekend!
ANOTHER MESSY WEEKEND?
While Saturday will be for the most part quiet with near normal temperatures, Saturday night and especially Sunday, turns messy. The SW winds get going, we get above freezing for a time, and we start to get into the mixed mess precipitation game. With this, Sunday, being day 4, I’m not going to get cute with details yet. Just know the important stuff. Above freezing. Snow to mix to rain to mix to snow. This will actually be a blessing. Temperatures will not get warm enough, long enough, in the snowbelt areas, for this to wipeout the base. This scenario is actually, what we want to ADD moisture to the base. What we need is lake effect on top of that and a blast of very cold air to come in behind this storm to set us up. If only…
THE ARCTIC EXPRESS FINALLY COMES TO TOWN!
Indications are now very strong on all models a very strong cold front ends Sunday’s mix mess and it turns REALLY COLD Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. It’s only a few days of bitter cold. But it’s bitter. At its peak on Tuesday, temps will struggle to get out of the teens, even in the lower elevations. Below zero overnights, especially north of the Thruway are LIKELY! And with the Arctic express rolling over the wide open Lake Ontario and Lake Erie which are still above 40F (5 C) with -20 C air at 850mb coming in, extreme instability will be present! This means Sunday night, through Monday into Tuesday morning could be a potentially significant lake effect snow event. This is by far the best initial setup I’ve seen on lake effect all season. It’s day 5-6 at the moment, so PRAY this scenario holds and refines as we get within 72-84 hours of the event in the next few days. It would be nice to see a big dump of lake snows! Wherever it goes! BE ON ALERT!
SO WHEN CAN I FINALLY RIDE?
This weekend the snow bowls over the Adirondacks and some of Tug Hill proper, likely the seasonal roads, should have just enough snow to do some short rides with. Should. Double check in the next day or two before you trailer up there. Your mileage and range will again be extremely limited. I’ll have more on this tonight in the Guide to Your Ride Podcast, sponsored by Water’s Edge Inn in Old Forge, watersedgeinn.com
SUMMARY
It’s a painfully slow process, I know. But January is here. The weather is acting like January. The forecast is not the best but it’s way better than it was. It’s only a matter of time before we get enough snow and cold to open up more snowmobile trails. Hoping by MLK weekend in 10 days, we will be in a position where we have a lot more trails open, especially in the snowbelt areas. No blowtorch warmth anywhere in sight. No drenching rains in sight. But unfortunately, no big snowstorms in sight either. Our friends, Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, will ultimately be the heroes, and the ultimate reason we can ride sleds. If and where we can. Snow dance! Pray! Thank you!’
THANK YOU!
Devon Senecal and PR Plus Small Engine Repair in Sherrill, NY for your membership and sponsorship of Upstate Snow! The audience continues to grow! Appreciate you guys! And if you’d like to join the dozens of folks whom have come on board with Upstate Snow, here is how you do it:
To become a MEMBER, drop me $10, and you’ll get name recognition, or if you wish not to use your name, recognition to your favorite snowmobile club or where you live. To become a SPONSOR, drop me $60 and I’ll put up a link to your business, Facebook page or snowmobile club!
Click below to get started
paypal.me/lupiallc
www.venmo.com/u/Richard-Lupia
THANK YOU to our faithful sponsors and members!
SPONSORS
Southern Tug Hill SnoRiders
Saratoga Snowmobile Association
Ohio Ridge Riders
ILSNOW.com
Enjem’s Flooring America
Water’s Edge Inn – Old Forge
Adirondacks Speculator Chamber of Commerce
White Lake Inn
Toads LLC Fisher and Snow Dog Plows, Cairo, NY
John Schoff Memorial Vintage Ride – January 15, 2022
Lincoln Mountain Gansevoort Snowmobile Club
ATV Tractor
Foley’s Lawn Care and Gardening
Better Homes and Gardens Pristine Real Estate – Cape Coral, FL
North Country Market – Thendara, NY
PR Plus Small Engine Repair – Sherrill, NY
MEMBERS
Chris Rinck
Charles Klesse
Chaz Albertson
Dave Gleasman
John Bates
Darrin Harr
Mark Enjem
Matthew Pistner
Eric Vilovchik
Brian & Paula Bedell
Robert G. Gartley
Chris Higgins
Nathan DeMarco
Frank Presky
Chris Schoff
Richard Keller
Mark Spano
Paul Marconi
Michael Schrader
Chris Skipper
Frank Sansone
Mercy Board LLC
John Scalora
Tom & Alis Vincent
Angelina Gogola
Cricket Corelli
Russ Lamoy
Jeff Greene
Chaz Albertson Jr.
John Bossolt
John Foley
Andy Artessa
Jenny & Ron Tyre
Mark Finkbiner
Christopher Cawley
Darren Bryant
M&M, Snow Chic and Snow L!fe
Doug Wasiura
Devon Senecal
