Lake effect still on schedule tonight through tomorrow downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with Buffalo and Watertown being ground zero for this event. The snow will start later tonight and really get going overnight and during the daytime tomorrow. With a 240-250 wind, and with model guidance relatively unchanged, I’m sticking with my forecast from yesterday. Also notice the bullish NWS Buffalo has started to come off of the highest numbers a little. So I feel good about this forecast.
The well advertised storm we’ve had for almost a week, the cutter, that would bring a general 3-7 or 4-8 of snow late this week, Thursday night though Friday… well… there’s a reason I don’t put out snowfall maps beyond three days.
This is why.
The storm, now within our upper air network out by the west coast is looking like it will take a path decidedly south on this one. Instead of going Ohio Valley to Mason/Dixon line to off the NJ shore… it is now looking like it will take a similar path to the storm that just hit the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast on Monday. The storm looks to setup 75-150 miles farther south. And that takes it from the Tennessee Valley through the Carolinas and offshore the Tidewater of Virginia. What impact does that have on Upstate NY? A lot. Instead of steady snowfall, it looks like a light snowfall now. With this officially being the 72-84 hour window, I cannot justify any more than 2″ of snow over most of Upstate NY. Downstate, PA, NJ, MD, absolutely I can justify a lot more snow. It’s just too far south this time. Could it change again? Yes it could, but officially, I’m only hanging a dusting to 2″ on the official map for today for the Friday event.
There should be enough between the two events to get, hopefully, at least a few clubs opened up for this weekend. Just a few. Nothing huge or widespread. It’s all baby steps here. We’ll let you know where the best places to go will be tomorrow evening on the Guide to Your Ride Podcast, sponsored by Waters Edge Inn in Old Forge.
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