This is a big one. This will be one of the bigger late season snowstorms that starts in just a few hours, hits hard all Monday night and into Tuesday morning with lingering snow showers and lake effect during the midday and afternoon on Tuesday. This will accumulate, even in the lower elevations, substantially, enough to shovel and/or snow blow. In the higher elevations, we are approaching major status. This will be a heavier wet snow, dramatically increasing the likelihood of power outages and downed tree limbs. The greatest threat for this will be in the higher elevations above 1000′. The Adirondacks, Catskills and Tug Hill will be hit like and will look like mid winter after this storm. I expect the highest amounts, somewhere in these areas, to exceed one full foot of this stuff. It’s crazy. But it’s absolutely going to happen somewhere in Upstate NY. On the flip side, WNY will get ripped off as well as the lower elevations of the Capital Region and the Hudson Valley. Here anywhere from an inch to two or three will be about it. A lot less than the zone between I-81 and I-87. This is the best shot.
Why the change and such confidence in this? MY TRIP HOME. We left at 5 AM for Greenville. I knew based on the forecast I’d hit cold rain in Virginia, but instead I HIT A WALL OF HEAVY WET SNOW IN WINCHESTER, VA! We had snow on the ground, snow in the air all the way to Charlottesville, VA. This is VERY FAR SOUTH and tells me the secondary low has already taken over with the lower temps and lower dewpoint depressions kicking in. It will be a good storm for Upstate NY.
This would be the equivalent of Albany, NY May 18, 2002 with the latest recorded snowfall of 2.2″. This would be mid to late May stuff because this was not expected there and the trees ARE ALREADY BLOOMING THAT FAR SOUTH. That will save us from major damage with the power outages, but there will still be some. Be ready for a good storm. Not Stella. Not a blizzard, but a good late season storm out of character for this time of year.
Once this pulls out Wednesday will be a recovery day, before the warmth starts to come back in by Friday and the weekend. 60s with some 70s are expected next weekend. If you have any designs on enjoying any of this snow, lawn jockeying, or hitting a seasonal road, do it right away. If not, just watch it melt later this week. I know many of you are over the lack of winter with a big boom that would have been welcomed in mid December, despised in mid April. But sometimes, that’s how the cookie crumbles.
It’s 405 PM as of this writing and I’m rolling through Lynchburg, Virginia. We had to get out of the mountains and I-81 to have a chance to get home to Greenville tonight. We’ll get home after dark but we are out of the heavy rains and it’s rain free the rest of the way home. Thankful. Amy is driving so I can write this with what little battery I have left. THANK YOU for reading, sharing, and for supporting Upstate Snow! Please support Upstate Snow through the links below, or check out my other site to check out my new homeschool weather program, Wonder of Weather for Kids! I have so much more I’m working on. Just go to www.richlupia.com
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