It’s Saturday afternoon 440 PM live from Barneveld NY as I’m writing this blog. It’s 37 and cloudy. It has rained all day. After leaving sun and 80 in Greenville, SC 48 hours ago, this is bull. We have had accumulations of snow at and above 1500′ on the Tug Hill and in the Adirondacks today. There will be more snow showers, even in the lower elevations tonight and on and off through Easter Sunday. Accumulations are possible in the grassy areas, especially above 1000′. This report is NOT based off of that… but Monday PM into Tuesday. Yes folks, this is Day 1 of 4 or 5 in winter misery in Mid-April. Normal highs should be near 60 in the lower elevations, 50s up higher. You can fugedabuodit until middle of next week.
Monday afternoon a big soaker from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys coming rolling up the Appalachians FAST. It will spread rain into Upstate NY Monday afternoon into Monday night. As the storm approaches and the primary storm going into Ohio then southern Ontario and weakens, the secondary, the Nor’easter gets wound up quickly off the Delmarva coast, then comes up into Long Island towards southern New England by Tuesday morning. Track is track. This is textbook. If in winter, foot plus most places, especially east of I-81, but it’s mid April and the elevation factors and daytime heating will make this a mess and a tricky call. Models are not helping either. Here’s a look at the Euro, GFS and NAM from this afternoon for Upstate NY. Each with a different flair, but all agree, primary to secondary, Nor’easter by Tuesday morning, and if you are in the higher elevations EAST of Interstate 81, WATCH OUT…
So what do I think out of all three scenarios shown above? The NAM is slower and not in line with the Euro, at least not enough for me to say MONEY. GFS is farther east but still gives good snow and is a plausible scenario. I’m still in the 48-72 hour range with this forecast, so I would expect another update Sunday night or Monday morning, before the storm hits. I’ll do my best, but as I mentioned, I’m in Upstate NY visiting family for Easter weekend…
Heaviest snow from changeover Monday evening/night, into Tuesday morning. I think most of this snow, especially below 1000′ has fallen by 9-10 AM Tuesday. With the wraparound, lake effect (yes, even in April!?) and upslope flow, there will be additional snows and potential for higher elevation accumulations during the day Tuesday. Even in the lower elevations and cities, it’s not unprecedented to have snow this late into April… but we are getting squarely into the “not every year” territory. This will need to be watched closely, especially with the favorable overnight timing.
Here’s my call. Higher elevations above 1000′ mainly are in line to get at least 2″ from this storm, which will cause plows, sanders and salters to be out. Sorry. Spring cleanup will need to be redone in these areas. In the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and Catskills, 5-10 inches is not unprecedented, even in May on a strong storm, but again, not every year. I think based on models, timing, track, this is a decent first call. We shall see…
So what else have I been working on? Homeschool weather program! It can be for them or for folks in regular public school, but I’ve put a huge focus in the last several weeks into developing a weather teaching business. I call it the Wonder of Weather for Kids! 25 short lessons on the weather, ranging 10-20 minutes each, with over 6 hours total material! The program has been well received so far and if you have kids, have people who have kids, etc. this would be a great program! You like how I forecast, explain things? This is that… on steroids!
Go to www.richlupia.com, my personal website, go to wonder of weather for kids on the frontpage, click on the banner to buy. Register on the next page, then pay on the page after that, then you’ll be on the Account Login page to click to access Wonder of Weather for Kids! Everything I’ve set up will be there. Additional lessons and anything I redo over the course of time will be there. Your membership to richlupia.com to access the material, gets you in to everything I do in the future! Thanks in advance!
Talk to you soon… and Happy Easter. He IS RISEN. And He IS ALIVE AND IS WORKING!
God bless,
Rich Lupia
Upstate Snow
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