Given the timing on this and the fact this storm will stall over the Northeast for a few days, trying to come up with a good period of time to produce this forecast was difficult. I would prefer a morning but I had to be out early today. I am in all afternoon so I figured why not now.
Just as good of time as any. Out of all the models I am choosing, I am picking the European. Although all the models have centered in on heavier snows over NY, PA, NJ and into the Virginia’s, mainly in the higher elevations. If you are less than 1000′, particularly less than 500′, your chances of seeing snow are a lot less. At or above 1500′ is almost a sure thing now.
Tomorrow evening and into Thursday morning the heavy precipitation band moves in. But it is just too warm at this point even at the higher elevations (unless you are way up like above 2000′). Expect a cold rain with temps ranging from the upper 30’s to lower 40’s.
Thursday afternoon and into Thursday Night is when we will see changeover in the higher elevations. Here is where snow will begin to pickup and start accumulation after sunset. This snow will continue into Friday morning. In the lower elevations it will either be just a cold rain or a mix of rain and snow with little accumulation.
During the day on Friday as our low pressure comes flying overhead of Upstate NY and into northern PA, this is when the best chance for snow anywhere is. As the low move away late Friday and into Saturday AM, that is when I expect the snows to taper off. A majority of the snows across Upstate NY will fall either on Thursday or Friday. If additional snows occur on Saturday and/or Sunday, they will be much lighter and will be updated in a coming forecast. This one I am doing through Friday Night only. Sticking to my 84 hour rules!
The most amount of snow I expect across the Catskills and the Southern Tier. Next area of snowfall will of course be the North Country, Tug Hill and the Adirondacks. In the Hudson Valley, Mohawk Valley, and the Lake Ontario plain, I expect much less snow. In fact here, I don’t expect much at all. It is very possible in these lower elevation areas you could see next to nothing. In the higher elevations you could see up to a foot! At least that is the way I am seeing it now. We have another 36 hours before the snow starts. I have time for another update should things shift or change in the meantime.
Please welcome Paton & Son Excavating and Landscaping of Woodstock, NY to our advertisers! They have jumped in. Why haven’t you yet? Our flash sale is gone, but you can still get in on advertising on Upstate Snow. Please reach out to me directly on that.
Rich and Zack Lupia
Upstate Snow
November 19, 2024.
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