Welcome to Snowvember! TWO SNOW MAPS. This first one is the only one shown in the headline and post. Second snow map in story focus on bigger lake snows Monday PM into Monday night and Tuesday AM…
ROUND 1
The south winds shift W to NW in the next few hours (post time 2 PM 11/1), gusts 30-50 MPH and temps crash below freezing by dark. Resultantly, rain changes to snow everywhere after sunset and the lakes wake up on cue with the air cold enough. This is the only event off Lake Erie and the Southtowns to Ski Country. As is standard in early season snowfalls, cheat the numbers accordingly. If you are up high, best chance at the higher numbers in your area. Lower elevations less. This will be the lighter of two events across CNY, Mohawk Valley, Tug Hill and the Adirondacks. The 3-5+ in the hills S of the Thruway will be highly elevation dependent. I could see 5+ along the 2000’+ hilltops and ridges but some localized valleys may get less than 3. Enough to shovel either way…
ROUND 2
Next system, a reinforcing trough and even colder air will redirect the winds back to about due west and line up perfectly to set up rip roaring lake effect snow for several hours. This is the main show. Because temps will be a touch too warm and moisture a little less in WNY, Lake Erie misses out on Round 2. This event belongs to Tug Hill and Lake Ontario. For the traditional snowbelts downwind of Lake Ontario, Monday afternoon and night (lingering into Tuesday morning) will be the first big and plowable lake effect event of the season. Check out the NAM 3K idea on this followed by my snowfall map specific from noon Monday to noon Tuesday… NAM and snow map both for same time period. It looks like a lot of this snow will hit hard for a 4-8 hour period within this 24 hour window…
It will dissipate during the day Tuesday in the lake effect belts… and then stick a fork in it. Buh bye snow! Starting Wednesday 11/4 it warms up fast. Lots of 50s and 60s across Upstate NY with even 70s not far away. Not quite record warmth but awful close. Next shot at a return to “normal” November weather won’t be until after Veteran’s Day 11/11…
So if you are a snow lover, GEEK OUT NOW! Because the forecast center will be quiet for awhile afterwards…
Be good!
Rich
