This is the “Step back from the edge of the cliff” Memo
It’s the first full day of the season for parts of the North Country and Adirondacks. And we must be the messengers. This is what we are jokingly calling this report… but there is a truth to this: From a snow lover and snowmobiling perspective, mid-December is going to suck. There is no way around this now. This only speaks to the next few weeks, December, not the winter as a whole. We still firmly believe the winter itself will be a good one.
Consider weather history. Most winters in Upstate NY have swings like this. A few winters just suck for cold and snow (1982-83, 2001-02, 2011-12, 2015-16). A few winters are gate-to-gate champions of cold and snow with no break at all (1970-71, 1976-77, 1993-94, 2002-03). Most winters have their swings. This will be one of them. Even notable “big” winters, like 1995-96, had a wipeout thaw and big flood in mid-January 1996, and it took a month for the second half of winter to kick in. March 1996 was a gangbuster month. Last year we had the President’s Day week wipeout and had nothing for two weeks. March came in like a lion and we got a second season. It’s the way it goes.
The closest example we are thinking of for our situation now is 2003-04. Overall it was a robust winter, known as one of the best here Upstate, a top 10 for most in the cold and snow department. We had a big November and early December with cold and snow… then for 2-3 weeks the bottom fell out. Mid- to late-December 2003 was nothing. Warm. Sun and rain. A green Christmas for most and temps in the 40s, 50s and 60s rolling into New Year’s 2004. Then that was it. January 2004 was one of the coldest and snowiest winters in Upstate history. No January Thaw. No February Thaw. We didn’t lose it until the end of March, beginning of April.
So with the history laid out and the evidence why we think this is just a bump in the road, here are the details on what we see coming:
Many of you have heard about the big storm likely to drill the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic this weekend into early next week. The likelihood is growing with each model run that it will happen to some extent… and that the pattern won’t bring it to Upstate. After that the pattern shift takes hold:
Here is the Euro 8-10 day ensemble mean from this morning. It’s ugly. You can see from our markup of this that everything is going against us. We need +PNA. The pattern is turning decisively -PNA. We need -NAO (Greenland Block). With it being pushed to the east into Europe, we go +NAO. The “Polar Vortex” (PV) retreats within the Arctic Circle… and if it comes below it at all, it’s over the Bering Sea. For us, not good to “see.” Add in a strong screaming Pacific Jet and you get zonal flow across the USA. This means for Upstate there is no way to get cold Canadian air in here… much less Siberian air. Add to this consistency from yesterday’s ensemble runs.
These graphics and a great write up on his FB page were published yesterday by Dave Eichorn, former Chief Meteorologist from WSYR in Syracuse. The temps mean is focused near Syracuse. All ensembles next week are above normal. All. 850 mb anomalies are at least +5 C. 5 C is 9 degrees F. So if the “average is 30-35 F for a high and 15-20 F for the low,” you can add 9 F (or probably more to that). That math doesn’t help much of Upstate keep the snow pack that is left… even the Tug and the Adirondacks will lose a bunch over time next week. Depending on how warm and how much rain comes in the 7-14 day window, it’s possible we could have to start over again right before Christmas and over Christmas break into the New Year. For sure it’s going to take a week for this to set up (Week of 12/9) which means it will take at least a week for it to break down (Week of 12/16). That brings us to within a few days of Christmas at least. It is what it is.
Our team will keep you posted on everything we see in the day by day as usual. When we see signs of the change back to winter later in the month, we will be conservative and shoot straight with you as always. Be patient folks… we will get our riding in and we have a long way to go in this game known as winter 2018-19.
Thank you again for your loyal support of our site.
