The snow map we issued for when precip does change to snow (it already has in WNY as of this 1030 PM Christmas Eve writing), through tomorrow and Saturday into Sunday AM… I’m going to run with it and repost it at the bottom of this blog, however, I have deep concerns about folks on the warm side of this storm that still have several hours of heavy rain to go before changeover. Forget whether we have snow to ride. For many in CNY, the Southern Tier, Catskills, Capital Region and Hudson Valley it’s going to be a very long night, and a very long Christmas Day, particularly for road crews, emergency first responders and for many near any rivers, lakes and streams. A significant/major flood event is underway and/or imminent in these areas in the next several hours and through Christmas Day.
It has gone worst case scenario with the rain, slowing front, tropical moisture and etc. A lot of the big snows that fell last week have compacted significantly and will unleash tons of water into rivers and streams causing significant to major flooding. This will also impact many snowmobile trail systems with washouts, bridge damage and huge areas of water likely. While that focus is secondary to life, property and infrastructure, it is a big concern beyond the initial impacts.
TIMING: Snow should not reach CNY and Southern Tier for several hours from this writing. Hopefully by morning. It will not clear NYS until sometime Christmas afternoon. While this is bad news for areas along and east of I-81, it’s also more time for snow and lake effect to hit WNY through Friday night. Most snow in WNY tapers off Saturday. Most of snow along and east of I-81 only starts Friday night. Most will be Saturday, ending by Sunday AM. We may make some adjustments to the TUG HILL forecast early Saturday AM but for now, overall snow forecast totals I am leaving unchanged.
Be careful out there. Turn around, don’t drown. Whether in cars in the next few days on the roads. Be very careful when snow and cold returns… tons of water out there to turn ski doos in to sea doos… even around and after new years. It will take a lot of time for this water to work its way back out.
Merry Christmas. Be safe. Help thy neighbor. Pray for those impacted directly by the storm, especially flooding.
Rich
