Note — for tonight we suspended the “area forecast” slides, focusing exclusively on this storm.
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Game time folks. If you live Upstate and need milk, bread, gasoline, etc now is the time to go. Don’t wait until tomorrow because you won’t have that option. Even by Upstate NY standards, for many (especially along and S of the Thruway) this will be a high impact storm making travel dangerous. We anticipate manys schools and businesses will call off tomorrow.
This is just like last winter on so many accounts. Big thaw shut everything down mid February. Spring began to sprung. All of the sudden WHAM! The big one. No this isn’t the Pi Day storm of last year, or “Stella” made popular by a certain network… but it will be memorable enough.
The synopsis is this: The Greenland Block has come back with avengence to tell Spring STOP! This will take a modest passing rain and/or snow event that most wouldn’t notice, stall it off the coast of Long Island and southern New England, and turn it into a monster Nor’easter. You could very well hear the term “Bombogenesis” again. This thing will drop to somewhere near 970 mb… that’s equivalent to a CAT 1 or CAT 2 hurricane, and yes, high wind warnings are up for much of the southern New England coast and eastern Long Island. The position and strength of the low is a perfect placement for much of Upstate NY to cash in on maximum snowfall. As often happens with these storms, there will be “banding” or a meso band of intense snows. At this time we expect that to be over the Southern Tier of NY and the Catskills. Any wobble or change could bring it up more into Central NY and possibly the Tug Hill and the southern ADKs… or more into eastern NY and areas east of Route 12.
This will be a heavy wet snow, hard to shovel and snowblow. Add in the strong gusty winds, plus the snow weighing on tree limbs and power lines, power outages are possible in some areas.
Timing: Snow develops overnight and becomes heavy at times by morning. There may be a brief lull or lessening of the snowfall during the morning and midday after the initial wave but from midday through Friday afternoon and evening, as the storm “bombs out”, stalls and comes back to the west briefly, a second round of heavy snow will hit, especially east of I-81 and south of I-90. Snows should wind down Friday night. Weekend weather should be benign with a mix of sun and clouds, some light snow showers, breezy Saturday at times, not as much Sunday.
How much snow? Glad you asked! Our final call map…
SO WHAT ABOUT RIDING???
It is impossible to say at this point. Nearly every club in the state is shut down from lack of snow, many areas have open water and mud and the ground has thawed in many places. Here is what we do know for sure:
1) Just because there is snow covering a trail doesn’t mean it’s open. VOLUNTEER CLUBS MAKE THE CALL! Some may decide despite snowfall to not open because of potential damage to cropland and/or landowner concerns. We wouldn’t have a trail system without them… so if they say CLOSED despite the snow, RESPECT that decision and find another club to ride on. ALWAYS CHECK THE CLUBS WHERE YOU WANT TO RIDE BEFORE YOU GO!
2) Because of the early spring and bases wiped out in all but a few places mainly on the Tug and in the ADKs, it’s just like the start of the season. Lots of mud holes and water hazards will be present. Winds may blow down branches. This will not be mid season riding conditions by any stretch but poor to marginal conditions in some places, fair to good in others. Many places will be “Mashed potatoes and gravy”. Ride accordingly. Because of timing clubs will be able to do little about it. Be a help to the clubs and report hazards, help clear a branch and for pete’s sake don’t complain to them! Trust us… they’ll do all the can.
3) With stronger March sun in the sky, and temps above freezing during the day, below freezing at night, this snow will be hard to groom. High water content helps but temps in the 20’s at coldest won’t help as much as it would if it was in the teens. Some clubs may try to groom while others may decide not to. Again their choice and if they don’t groom, don’t complain! If they feel with conditions there is a risk of damage… respect that decision. Between riding traffic (where trails do open) and the aforementioned, Saturday, Sunday and maybe Monday will likely be it for taking advantage of this. Like last year, it won’t stay around long. If clubs are open and you want a last ride this year, don’t wait… GO… or you’ll be waiting until next December.
4) If I live downstate or out of state, do I trailer up? Depends on how bad you want to ride. We won’t get back what we had (frozen down, good bases, excellent riding conditions) until next season for sure. Your call
5) Riding on any frozen body of water, lake, pond, river, etc, even in the ADKs is a very risky proposition in our opinion. We strongly advise you STAY OFF THE ICE!
That is all. If you get reports of what clubs are open to ride, how things are out there, hazards, help, etc, please pass along on our Facebook page. We’ll be out this weekend ourselves enjoying our last miles of the season with our families, safely and respectfully. And we hope you do to.
